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Monday's Featured Story Battle of the Black Friday Stocks: Amazon vs. Walmart vs. TargetWritten by Nathan Reiff. Published 11/17/2025. 
Key Points - U.S. consumers are projected to spend more than $1 trillion on holiday shopping for the first time ever.
- Major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target are poised to benefit from this trend.
- Walmart's omnichannel approach may give it an advantage on Black Friday, but Amazon's unparalleled logistics network and competitive pricing make it an overall holiday retail winner.
As Black Friday's reach extends to Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday and, in some cases, the entire month of November, retail sales have expanded along with it. The National Retail Federation estimates that the 2025 winter holidays (November through December) will see more than $1 trillion in U.S. retail sales for the first time—an increase of 3.7% to 4.2% over 2024. Despite headwinds from waning consumer confidence and inflation, Black Friday remains an important driver of sales at the start of the holiday season. Some of Wall Street's biggest players have been taking advantage of the same early-morning price behavior for years — a pattern that appears shortly after the opening bell when overnight institutional flows hit the market. Most retail traders never notice it, but Dave Aquino has spent years studying this window and developed a simple routine built to capitalize on it without relying on news or predictions.
He calls it the Good Morning Cash Plan — a single morning setup designed to give traders a structured, rules-based approach before the day even begins. Dave breaks down the full method in a free training session, including how he identifies the setup each morning. Watch the Good Morning Cash Plan training here Three core retailers positioned to benefit from increased post-Thanksgiving spending are Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT). How will these retail giants fare in 2025, and which is likely to come out on top? Amazon: The Online Juggernaut Amazon is the undisputed leader in U.S. online retail. Although the e-commerce giant has diversified into cloud computing, advertising and other services, its retail business remains substantial. Amazon's Black Friday deals run for nearly two weeks—from November 20 to December 1—and span all categories, with electronics, toys and beauty traditionally among the top sellers during the period. In 2024 the company hosted its most successful Black Friday event to date. It also regularly posts the lowest online prices of any major U.S. retailer, a competitive edge it has maintained for nearly a decade. That combination of variety and pricing power largely stems from Amazon's significant logistics advantages. The firm is even preparing to disrupt the grocery space by leveraging its vast distribution network—one of the last areas where brick-and-mortar stores have retained an advantage. Walmart: The Omnichannel King Once strictly a traditional retailer, Walmart has successfully pivoted to an omnichannel strategy that blends in-store experiences with a growing online presence. That approach has paid off in the U.S. and abroad, helping produce some of Walmart's best recent earnings. Walmart has also attracted some third-party sellers who previously favored Amazon, making its e-commerce marketplace an increasingly important growth driver. Coupled with a robust fulfillment network that supports competitive pricing and strategic inventory planning for both in-store and online sales, Walmart benefits from one of the most loyal customer bases among major retailers. Target: The Challenger Target is a household name, but its smaller scale relative to Amazon and Walmart means it has pursued a niche strategy to remain competitive during Black Friday. The company emphasizes curation—maintaining a tighter third-party marketplace and offering a more selective assortment of brands than many rivals. That focus has helped Target build a reputation for delivering strong value on quality items across categories. Its store pickup program—where customers order online and pick up in-store—gained traction during the COVID-19 pandemic and remains popular. Target has faced headwinds in recent quarters, including a widespread boycott after rolling back parts of its DEI program. The Black Friday period could be a chance for the company to rebound or to lose further ground to larger competitors. Key Metrics Comparison On a year-to-date basis, Walmart has the most momentum heading into Black Friday: WMT shares are up about 14% this year, versus gains of roughly 8% for AMZN and a decline of about 34% for TGT. Looking at holiday revenue estimates, Amazon forecasts fourth-quarter revenues between $206 billion and $213 billion; the other two companies had not published comparable holiday forecasts as of this writing. Amazon's online store sales for the latest quarter reached $67.4 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, representing roughly 63% of total sales for the period. Walmart's latest annual report showed $121 billion in online sales—just under 18% of total revenue. Target doesn't publish the same level of sales breakdown, but its digital comparable sales growth has recently outpaced overall sales growth, indicating online strength despite broader challenges. So, Who Wins Black Friday 2025? Walmart's broad omnichannel strategy, large and loyal customer base, and competitive pricing position it well to lead the Black Friday race this year. Investors looking to capitalize on that momentum might consider buying shares ahead of Walmart's earnings release, expected on November 20, which will cover the Black Friday sales period. That said, in the broader retail landscape Amazon may still emerge as the overall winner. Its ability to offer a wider assortment at lower prices, combined with tailwinds from AWS, advertising and other services, gives it an edge across a larger global market. Target, meanwhile, could outperform expectations if its curated assortment and pickup capabilities drive traffic, but it will need to navigate lingering brand and sales headwinds to close the gap with its larger rivals. Finally, while Black Friday matters most in the United States, the broader holiday season is significant globally—and Amazon's massive international presence provides another competitive advantage.
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