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The Earnings360 Team
Monday's Bonus Article 3 Smart Defensive Stocks for an Uneasy MarketWritten by Chris Markoch. Published 11/18/2025. 
Key Points - Despite new market highs, recession risks remain elevated due to weakening consumer credit and signs of job market stress.
- Procter & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson offer stable dividends, strong balance sheets, and catalysts that could provide upside in a downturn.
- A rotation away from AI and into Dow components could make the DIA ETF a compelling defensive play for 2025.
At one point in early November, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) briefly topped 48,000 for the first time ever. At different times in 2025, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 have also made new all-time highs (ATHs). Despite sharp price swings, it's been a solid year to own stocks. Yet many economists, analysts, and investors remain uneasy. The market appears priced for perfection—recession risks, however, are not fully priced in. Some of Wall Street's biggest players have been taking advantage of the same early-morning price behavior for years — a pattern that appears shortly after the opening bell when overnight institutional flows hit the market. Most retail traders never notice it, but Dave Aquino has spent years studying this window and developed a simple routine built to capitalize on it without relying on news or predictions.
He calls it the Good Morning Cash Plan — a single morning setup designed to give traders a structured, rules-based approach before the day even begins. Dave breaks down the full method in a free training session, including how he identifies the setup each morning. Watch the Good Morning Cash Plan training here Even with broad gains, some skepticism persists. The Magnificent 7 trade may have cooled off, but the market is clearly being lifted by a narrow group of names, mostly tied to the AI boom. The K-Shaped Economy Concern Current economic commentary focuses on a K-shaped recovery. Higher-income consumers are navigating inflation of around 3%—still above the Federal Reserve's informal 2% target but manageable for affluent households. Lower-income consumers, however, have been under pressure for several years. Evidence in rising credit defaults, delinquent auto loans, and an uptick in foreclosures suggests this problem is worsening. The labor market had been the economy's strongest pillar, but even that is starting to show signs of strain. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) recently lowered its estimated probability of a recession from 60% to 40% following a recent de-escalation of trade tensions. That's a meaningful reduction, but recession remains a real risk. Market Breadth Remains Narrow as Investors Chase Mega-Caps Recent data from Charles Schwab shows the percentage of S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average was slightly above 50%. That's historically low market breadth, which is adding to investors' concerns. This isn't a redux of 2021, when investors piled into unprofitable SPACs in hopes of striking it rich. In many cases today, the froth is concentrated in mega-cap stocks that have ample cash on their balance sheets. Still, many investors believe several of these names are overvalued. So what's an investor to do? Here are three stocks (and one ETF) that offer the potential for asymmetric returns in the current uneasy market. Procter & Gamble Has More Than a Dividend to Like Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) is part of the exclusive Dividend Kings club, meaning the company has increased its dividend for at least 50 consecutive years—70 years in PG's case—making it a staple for income-oriented investors. The 2.8% dividend yield could look more attractive if interest rates fall. Additionally, 2025 brings potential upside—the $171.53 price target implies about 17% upside from current levels. It's unclear how the company's proposed acquisition of Kenvue (NYSE: KVUE) would affect earnings. If the deal closes and the Tylenol controversy subsides, the first year could see a modest dilution to earnings per share (EPS). Over time, however, management expects cost synergies that could reverse that dilution and boost EPS. Johnson & Johnson Doubles Down on Medtech and Oncology Growth Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) spun off Kenvue in 2023 to focus more tightly on its medtech and pharmaceutical businesses. Its recent $3.5 billion acquisition of Halda Therapeutics exemplifies that strategy. The all-cash deal gives JNJ access to the clinical-stage company's HLD-0915 drug candidate, a once-daily oral prostate cancer medication that has received fast-track designation from the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA). This addition materially strengthens JNJ's oncology pipeline and should make the stock more appealing to growth-oriented investors. The DIA ETF Could Benefit From a Flight to Safety Over the past five years many investors have favored a passive "SPY and chill" approach, investing in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY). SPY may still be a solid choice, but with potential AI-driven overexuberance, investors might consider the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: DIA). If concerns about an AI bubble gain traction, money is likely to rotate into the Dow 30's more diversified, blue-chip names—making DIA a reasonable asymmetric play to capture that rotation. As of this writing, DIA has only about 37% institutional ownership. Still, the ETF has seen net buying in seven of the last eight quarters, suggesting institutions are beginning to build a hedge against a potential slowdown in the tech trade.
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