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The Earnings360 Team
Further Reading from MarketBeat Media Battle of the Black Friday Stocks: Amazon vs. Walmart vs. TargetWritten by Nathan Reiff. Published 11/17/2025. 
Key Points - U.S. consumers are projected to spend more than $1 trillion on holiday shopping for the first time ever.
- Major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target are poised to benefit from this trend.
- Walmart's omnichannel approach may give it an advantage on Black Friday, but Amazon's unparalleled logistics network and competitive pricing make it an overall holiday retail winner.
As Black Friday's reach now extends to Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday, and even the entire month of November in some cases, retail sales have expanded accordingly. The National Retail Federation estimates that the 2025 winter holidays (November through December) will generate more than $1 trillion in U.S. retail sales for the first time, an increase of 3.7%–4.2% over 2024. Despite headwinds from waning consumer confidence and inflation, Black Friday remains a key driver of holiday-season spending. Three core retailers positioned to benefit from the post-Thanksgiving spending surge are Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT). How will these retail giants fare in 2025, and which is likely to come out on top? Amazon: The Online Juggernaut In the United States, Amazon is the undisputed champion of online retail. Although the e-commerce giant has diversified into cloud, advertising, and other services in recent years, its retail business remains substantial. Amazon's Black Friday deals last for nearly two weeks, from November 20 to December 1, and span all categories, with electronics, toys, and beauty traditionally among the top sellers. In 2024, the company hosted its most successful Black Friday event to date. It also claims the lowest online prices of any major U.S. retailer—a distinction it has held for nearly a decade. Amazon's unmatched selection and pricing power stem largely from its logistics advantages. The firm is even preparing to use its extensive distribution network to disrupt the grocery space, one of the last areas where brick-and-mortar stores have maintained an edge. Walmart: The Omnichannel King Originally a traditional retailer, Walmart has successfully pivoted to an omnichannel strategy that blends in-store and online shopping. This approach has paid off in the U.S. and abroad, helping produce some of the company's strongest recent earnings. Walmart has even attracted some third-party sellers away from Amazon, making its e-commerce marketplace an increasingly important growth driver. Furthermore, Walmart's robust fulfillment network lets it price competitively and manage inventory effectively for both channels. Additionally, the company enjoys one of the most loyal customer bases among major retailers. Target: The Challenger Though a household name, Target's smaller scale compared with Amazon and Walmart has required it to carve out a distinct niche for Black Friday performance. The company emphasizes curation—including a smaller third-party marketplace and a more selective assortment of brands than many rivals. That focus has helped Target build a reputation for delivering strong value on quality items across categories. Target's buy-online, pick-up-in-store program (BOPIS), which gained traction during the COVID-19 pandemic, remains popular. Target has faced headwinds in recent quarters, including a widespread boycott following a rollback of its DEI program. The Black Friday period could be an opportunity for the company to rebound—or to fall further behind its competitors. Key Metrics Comparison On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, Walmart has the most momentum heading into Black Friday. WMT shares are up about 14% this year, compared with gains of roughly 8% for AMZN and a decline of about 34% for TGT. Looking at holiday revenue estimates, Amazon forecasts fourth-quarter revenues between $206 billion and $213 billion; neither Walmart nor Target had provided public holiday revenue forecasts at the time of writing. Amazon's online store sales for the latest quarter reached $67.4 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, representing roughly 63% of total sales for the period. Walmart's latest annual report showed $121 billion in online sales, accounting for just under 18% of total revenue for the period. Target doesn't provide a comparable breakdown, but digital comparable sales growth has recently outpaced overall sales growth. So, Who Wins Black Friday 2025? With its broad omnichannel approach, large customer base, and competitive pricing, Walmart looks positioned to dominate the Black Friday retail race this year. Investors who want exposure to that performance may see a potentially attractive entry point ahead of Walmart's earnings release, expected on November 20, which will reflect the Black Friday period. That said, in the broader retail landscape Amazon could also emerge as the leader. It is uniquely positioned to dominate a wider range of products at lower prices and benefits from the tailwinds of AWS, cloud services, and advertising. Finally, while Black Friday is primarily a U.S. phenomenon, the overall holiday season is global—and Amazon's massive international presence gives it an additional advantage.
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