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Darden Restaurants, Inc.: This is What a Strong Signal Looks Like
Reported by Thomas Hughes. Article Posted: 12/23/2025.
At a Glance
- Darden Restaurants is testing long-term trend support after a steep pullback, creating a potential trend-following entry setup.
- Recent quarterly results showed solid sales and same-restaurant sales growth, alongside continued dividends and buybacks.
- Heavy institutional ownership and net inflows suggest support if the stock confirms a breakout back above key moving averages.
Darden Restaurants, Inc.'s (NYSE: DRI) stock is flashing a potential trend-following entry in late-December after a sharp 2025 pullback.
The core thesis is straightforward: the long-term uptrend appears intact, momentum indicators are turning, and fundamentals—paired with institutional positioning—create a credible path to market-beating total returns in 2026 if the stock clears nearby resistance.
Darden Restaurants Pulls Back to Trend-Following Entry Point in Q4
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[[Click here now to view.]]Weekly price action for DRI stock has been in an uptrend since 2014, aside from COVID-19 volatility.
More recently, a robust 2024 advance broke the stock out of an ascending triangle pattern (a consolidation with flat highs and progressively higher lows) and set a new all-time high. That move was supported by growth, margin strength, and strong capital returns.
Price action in 2025 has been less obviously bullish: the stock fell roughly 25% from its peak to the November 2025 low. Even so, the broader uptrend remains unbroken.
That drawdown was uncomfortable, but it accomplished two useful things for trend followers: it pulled price back toward longer-term support and allowed momentum gauges to unwind from extended readings.
Indicators such as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and the stochastic oscillator have reset, suggesting the market has room to run. At the same time, a key exponential moving average—the 150-day EMA—has been catching up with price action. This intermediate-term EMA has aligned with DRI's uptrend line over time, and its advancing position in late December set the stage for the rebound that has already begun.
The MACD and stochastic readings, which measure momentum and trend, point to a technical trend-following entry. The price rebound, together with bullish crossovers in stochastic and MACD, constitutes the trend-following signal and suggests the stock can retest its recent highs and potentially move higher in 2026. Traders should note, however, that late-December action reached a nearby ceiling that must eventually be cleared.
The Next Hurdle: Reclaiming the 150-Day EMA to Confirm Accumulation
Despite improving momentum, the chart presents a clear test: reclaiming the 150-day EMA. Many investors treat that line as a proxy for intermediate-term accumulation. When price stays below it, rallies can stall; when price moves back above it and holds, it often signals that dip buyers are back in control.
The market appears to be digesting the rebound that followed the most recent earnings catalyst. A clean push above the 150-day EMA—followed by a successful retest—would provide additional confirmation for traders who want more than an initial bounce.
Earnings Catalyst: What Darden Just Reported and Why It Matters
The earnings results for fiscal Q2 (FQ2) showed year-over-year revenue growth accelerating to more than 7%, outperformance versus expectations, and healthy margin performance driven by core business and comparable-store sales.
Cash flow and capital returns also looked solid, including the 3.1% yielding dividend and continued share repurchases.
Buybacks are meaningful: the company reduced the share count by about 1.2% in the first half of the fiscal year and expects repurchases to remain robust in the second half.
While the restaurant sector's results helped spark market interest, analysts and institutions have been the primary drivers. The FQ2 release prompted several price-target increases and upgrades, reinforcing the Moderate Buy rating and a roughly 20% upside consensus. Institutional investors—who own more than 90% of the float—have been net buyers in 2025, approximately $2 of purchases for every $1 of sales. With that support, DRI's downside looks limited and its upside potential meaningful.
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