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Battle of the Black Friday Stocks: Amazon vs. Walmart vs. Target
Written by Nathan Reiff. Published 11/17/2025.
Key Points
- U.S. consumers are projected to spend more than $1 trillion on holiday shopping for the first time ever.
- Major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target are poised to benefit from this trend.
- Walmart's omnichannel approach may give it an advantage on Black Friday, but Amazon's unparalleled logistics network and competitive pricing make it an overall holiday retail winner.
As Black Friday's reach extends to Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday and, in some cases, the entire month of November, retail sales have expanded as well.
The National Retail Federation estimates that the 2025 winter holidays (extending from November to December) will see more than $1 trillion in U.S. retail sales for the first time, an increase of between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024's figures. Despite headwinds from waning consumer confidence and inflation, Black Friday remains an essential driver of retail sales at the start of the holiday season.
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Click here to see Navellier's urgent warning while there's still timeThree core retailers positioned to benefit from increased spending after Thanksgiving are Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT). How will these retail giants fare in 2025, and which is likely to come out on top?
Amazon: The Online Juggernaut
In the United States, Amazon remains the undisputed champion of online retail.
Although the e-commerce giant has expanded heavily into cloud, advertising and other services, its retail business continues to be substantial. Amazon's Black Friday deals run for nearly two weeks, from November 20 to December 1, and cover all categories, with electronics, toys and beauty traditionally among the top sellers.
In 2024, the company hosted its most successful Black Friday sales event to date. It also boasts the lowest online prices of any major U.S. retailer—a feat it has achieved for nearly a decade. Amazon's vast assortment and ability to undercut rivals on price stem largely from its logistics advantages.
The firm is preparing to utilize its vast distribution network to disrupt the grocery space, one of the few remaining areas where brick-and-mortar stores retain an advantage.
Walmart: The Omnichannel King
Although originally a traditional retailer, Walmart has become one of the most successful legacy chains to pivot to a true omnichannel strategy that blends in-store and online experiences.
This approach has served the company well in the U.S. and abroad, contributing to some of its strongest earnings reports in recent quarters.
Walmart has even attracted some third-party sellers away from Amazon's platform, making its e-commerce marketplace an increasingly important growth driver.
Its robust fulfillment network lets Walmart price competitively and manage inventory strategically across channels. Combined with one of the most loyal customer bases in retail, that network is a significant advantage during the holiday rush.
Target: The Challenger
Though a household name, Target's smaller size relative to Amazon and Walmart means it has carved out a niche to stay competitive during Black Friday.
The company emphasizes curation—including a smaller third-party marketplace and a more selective assortment of brands—positioning itself as a provider of value on quality items across a range of categories.
Target's store pickup options, where customers order online and collect in person, surged during the COVID-19 pandemic and have remained popular.
Target has faced headwinds in recent quarters, including a boycott after it scaled back its DEI program. The Black Friday period could be an opportunity for the company to rebound or risk falling further behind its larger rivals.
Key Metrics Comparison
On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, Walmart has the most momentum heading into Black Friday. WMT shares are up about 14% this year, compared with gains of about 8% for AMZN and a decline of roughly 34% for TGT.
Looking at holiday revenue estimates, Amazon forecasts fourth-quarter revenues between $206 billion and $213 billion; neither of the other two companies has provided public holiday revenue guidance as of this writing. Amazon's online store sales for the latest quarter reached $67.4 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, representing roughly 63% of total sales for the period.
Walmart's latest annual report showed $121 billion in online sales, accounting for just under 18% of total revenue during the period.
Target doesn't provide a similar breakdown, but its digital comparable sales growth has recently outpaced overall sales growth.
Who Wins Black Friday 2025?
With a broad omnichannel strategy, a large and loyal customer base, and competitive pricing, Walmart appears poised to dominate the Black Friday retail race this year.
Investors looking to capitalize on the company's performance may find an entry opportunity ahead of its earnings release, expected on November 20, which will cover the Black Friday sales period.
That said, considering the broader retail landscape, Amazon could still emerge as the overall leader. It is uniquely positioned to dominate a wider slate of products at lower prices and benefits from the additional tailwinds of AWS plus its cloud and advertising businesses.
Finally, while Black Friday itself is less pronounced outside the United States, the overall holiday shopping season is significant globally, and Amazon's massive international presence gives it an extra edge.
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