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The Earnings360 Team
Sunday's Bonus Story The Off-Price Retail King? Why TJX Looks Ready to Break OutWritten by Thomas Hughes. Published 11/20/2025. 
Key Points - TJX Companies' Q3 results and guidance update point to the continuation of existing stock price trends.
- Cash flow fuels a healthy capital return, including dividends, distribution growth, and buybacks.
- Analysts and institutions are supporting this market and pushing it higher in late 2025.
The macroeconomic and retail conditions are ideal for The TJX Companies' (NYSE: TJX) business, as reflected in its results and stock price. The macroeconomic headwinds that shifted consumer habits and affected results for major retailers have created a favorable buying environment for off-price retailers like The TJX Companies, enabling it to offer attractive values to still-resilient consumers. While everyone's making predictions about what might happen in 2026, we've identified 5 stocks with catalysts that are already locked and loaded.
These aren't hopes or projections. These are scheduled events, signed contracts, and approved projects that will play out over the next 12 months.
The difference between 100% gains and missing out completely? Positioning before 2026 arrives. Click here to get your free copy of this report The takeaway is that industry-leading growth in Q3, coupled with outperformance and cautiously raised Q4 guidance, suggests the uptrend in TJX shares is likely to continue. 
TJX Companies Outperforms and Raises Guidance for the Year The TJX Companies had a fantastic quarter, reporting revenue of $15.12 billion, up 7.0% year-over-year (YOY) and 175 basis points above consensus. Strength was driven by a 5% systemwide comp, gains across all divisions, and a 1.1% increase in store count. TJX Canada grew the fastest, up 8% YOY, followed by a 6% increase in the core Marmaxx divisions, a 5% increase in HomeGoods, and a 3% gain internationally. All segments posted stronger net growth, contributing to margin strength as well. Margin news was strong as well. The selling environment and revenue leverage produced a 100-basis-point improvement in gross margin, and operating efficiencies further translated that into leveraged earnings gains. GAAP EPS rose 12%, including the impact of share repurchases, which reduced the share count by an average of 1.3% for the quarter. TJX provided Q4 guidance that was slightly below some expectations. The shortfall is minor relative to MarketBeat's consensus and does not detract from the strong year-to-date performance. Full-year guidance was raised: the company now expects comp-store growth of 4% and earnings of $4.63 at the low end—more than $0.05 above consensus estimates. Given the trends, management's guidance appears conservative, and the company may again outperform when it reports Q4 results in January. Capital Returns Drive TJX Companies Stock Price Higher Capital returns are a key driver of the TJX stock price. The company pays dividends and buys back shares, reducing its share count aggressively each year. The dividend is modest relative to the S&P 500, but it is secure and the payout is growing. With a payout ratio below 40%, annual increases are likely to continue for this Dividend Aristocrat. Excluding the COVID-19 pause, the company has increased its distribution annually for nearly 30 years and appears capable of sustaining double-digit compound annual dividend growth for the foreseeable future. TJX Companies' balance sheet shows no red flags and reinforces the case for ownership. Q3 highlights included increases in current and total assets—driven by higher cash and inventory—offset by modest liability growth and a reduction in debt. The net result was nearly a 15% increase in shareholder equity, accompanied by persistently low leverage. The company is net cash, with long-term debt at roughly 0.2x equity. Analyst Trends Drive TJX Stock to New Highs The analyst trends are robust and align with the fundamental and technical outlook. They include expanded coverage, firmer sentiment, 25 analysts with a Buy rating, and an upward trend in price targets. The consensus now treats the stock as fairly valued following the Q3 release, but analyst targets and the technical trend point to the high end of the range—near $170—implying roughly 17% upside from mid-November levels.
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