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The Earnings360 Team
Today's Bonus News Battle of the Black Friday Stocks: Amazon vs. Walmart vs. TargetWritten by Nathan Reiff. Published 11/17/2025. 
Key Points - U.S. consumers are projected to spend more than $1 trillion on holiday shopping for the first time ever.
- Major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target are poised to benefit from this trend.
- Walmart's omnichannel approach may give it an advantage on Black Friday, but Amazon's unparalleled logistics network and competitive pricing make it an overall holiday retail winner.
As Black Friday's reach now extends to Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday and, in some cases, the entire month of November, retail sales have expanded along with it. The National Retail Federation estimates that the 2025 winter holidays (November–December) will exceed $1 trillion in U.S. retail sales for the first time, a gain of roughly 3.7%–4.2% over 2024. Despite waning consumer confidence and persistent inflation, Black Friday remains a key driver of holiday-season spending. $1 to Start Trading Smarter
Join Tim Sykes' AI-powered trading system — limited Black Friday offer. [Get Started for $1] Three core retailers positioned to benefit from post‑Thanksgiving spending are Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT). How will these giants fare in 2025, and which is likely to come out on top? Amazon: The Online Juggernaut In the United States, Amazon remains the undisputed leader in online retail. Although the e-commerce giant has expanded into cloud computing, advertising and other services, its retail business is still massive. Amazon's Black Friday deals last nearly two weeks, from November 20 to December 1, covering all categories; electronics, toys and beauty are traditionally among the top sellers. In 2024, the company hosted its most successful Black Friday event to date. It also claims the lowest online prices of any major U.S. retailer, a distinction it has maintained for nearly a decade. The company is preparing to use its vast distribution network to expand into the grocery space, one of the last categories where brick‑and‑mortar stores have held an advantage. Walmart: The Omnichannel King While originally a traditional retailer, Walmart has successfully pivoted to an omnichannel strategy that blends in‑store and online shopping. This approach has driven strong performance in the U.S. and abroad, helping produce some of the company's best recent earnings. Walmart has even attracted third‑party sellers from Amazon's marketplace, making its e‑commerce platform an important growth engine. Its broad fulfillment network supports competitive pricing and smarter inventory planning for both physical and online channels. Combined with a loyal customer base, this gives Walmart a durable advantage heading into the holidays. Target: The Challenger Although a household name, Target is smaller than both Amazon and Walmart and has carved out a niche to stay competitive during Black Friday. The company emphasizes curation—maintaining a narrower third‑party marketplace and a more curated assortment of brands than some rivals. That focus has helped Target build a reputation for offering good value on quality items across categories. Its store‑pickup program, where customers order online and collect at a nearby store, became popular during the COVID‑19 pandemic and remains widely used. Target has faced headwinds in recent quarters, including backlash after changes to its diversity, equity and inclusion programs. The Black Friday period could be a chance for a rebound—or for the company to lose more ground. Key Metrics Comparison On a year‑to‑date basis, Walmart has the most momentum heading into Black Friday. WMT shares are up about 14% this year, compared with gains of roughly 8% for AMZN and a decline of about 34% for TGT. Looking at holiday revenue estimates, Amazon forecasts fourth‑quarter revenue of $206 billion to $213 billion; neither Walmart nor Target had published comparable holiday forecasts at the time of writing. Amazon's online store sales for the latest quarter reached $67.4 billion, a 10% year‑over‑year increase, representing roughly 63% of total sales for the period. Walmart's latest annual report shows $121 billion in online sales, just under 18% of total revenue. Target does not publish the same breakdown, but its digital comparable sales growth has recently outpaced overall sales growth. So, Who Wins Black Friday 2025? Given its omnichannel reach, large customer base and competitive pricing, Walmart looks well positioned to lead the Black Friday race this year. Investors who want exposure to that potential strength may consider the window ahead of Walmart's earnings report, expected on November 20, which will capture the Black Friday sales period. That said, Amazon remains a formidable competitor. Its scale, lower pricing across many categories and the tailwinds from AWS, cloud services and advertising give it an edge in both the U.S. and international markets. While Black Friday is primarily a U.S. event, the broader holiday season matters around the world—and Amazon's global reach provides an additional advantage heading into the holidays.
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