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The Earnings360 Team
Tuesday's Featured Article The Off-Price Retail King? Why TJX Looks Ready to Break OutWritten by Thomas Hughes. Published 11/20/2025. 
Key Points - TJX Companies' Q3 results and guidance update point to the continuation of existing stock price trends.
- Cash flow fuels a healthy capital return, including dividends, distribution growth, and buybacks.
- Analysts and institutions are supporting this market and pushing it higher in late 2025.
The macroeconomic and retail conditions are ideal for The TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX), as reflected in its results and stock price. Macroeconomic headwinds that shifted consumer habits and hurt major retailers have created a favorable buying environment for off-price chains like The TJX Companies, allowing them to offer attractive value to still-resilient consumers. What I've uncovered about the true impact of President Trump's tariffs and DOGE initiative has left me deeply troubled. As someone who worked inside the Federal Reserve system and managed billions for America's wealthiest families, I recognize the warning signs others miss. I urge you to see my urgent message immediately. The window for preparation isn't just closing — it's slamming shut. Watching this may be the most consequential few minutes you spend this year. The takeaway is that industry-leading growth in Q3, combined with outperformance and an improved—albeit likely cautious—Q4 guidance, supports the view that the uptrend in TJX shares is expected to continue.  TJX Companies Outperforms and Raises Guidance for the Year The TJX Companies had a strong quarter, reporting revenue of $15.12 billion, up 7.0% year-over-year (YOY) and 175 basis points ahead of consensus. Strength was driven by a 5% systemwide comp, broad gains across divisions, and a 1.1% increase in store count. TJX Canada grew the fastest, up 8% YOY, followed by a 6% increase in the core Marmaxx divisions, a 5% gain at HomeGoods, and a 3% rise internationally. All segments delivered stronger net growth, which helped drive margin expansion. Margin results were also impressive. A favorable selling environment and revenue leverage produced a 100-basis-point improvement in gross margin, augmented by operating efficiencies and resulting in leveraged earnings growth. GAAP EPS rose about 12%, helped further by share repurchases that reduced the share count by an average of 1.3% for the quarter. TJX provided Q4 guidance that was somewhat below some expectations. However, the shortfall is minor relative to MarketBeat's consensus and does not diminish the strong year-to-date performance. As a result, full-year guidance was raised: the company now expects comp store growth of about 4% and low-end earnings of $4.63 per share—more than a nickel above consensus estimates. Given the trends, management's guidance is likely conservative, and actual outperformance may be reported when Q4 results are released in January. Capital Returns Drive TJX Companies Stock Price Higher Capital returns are an important driver of TJX's stock performance. The company pays dividends and repurchases shares, aggressively reducing its share count. Its dividend yield is roughly in line with the S&P 500 average; the payout is secure and the distribution is growing. The payout ratio is low—below 40%—so annual increases are likely to continue for this Dividend Aristocrat. Excluding the COVID-19 pause, the company has raised its distribution for nearly 30 years and appears positioned to sustain a double-digit compound annual growth rate for the foreseeable future. TJX's balance sheet shows no red flags and provides further incentives for ownership. Q3 highlights included higher current and total assets driven by increases in cash and inventory, offset by smaller gains in liabilities and a reduction in debt. The net result was nearly a 15% increase in shareholders' equity, accompanied by persistently low leverage; the company is effectively net cash, with long-term debt near 0.2x equity. Analysts Trends Drive TJX Stock to New Highs The analysts' trends are supportive and align with the fundamental and technical outlook. Coverage has increased, sentiment has firmed, 25 analysts carry a Buy rating, and price targets have trended higher. While consensus sees the stock as broadly fair valued after the Q3 release, price targets congregate at the high end of the range—near $170—implying roughly 17% upside from mid-November levels.
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