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The Earnings360 Team
Today's Featured Article 3 Smart Defensive Stocks for an Uneasy MarketWritten by Chris Markoch. Published 11/18/2025. 
Key Points - Despite new market highs, recession risks remain elevated due to weakening consumer credit and signs of job market stress.
- Procter & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson offer stable dividends, strong balance sheets, and catalysts that could provide upside in a downturn.
- A rotation away from AI and into Dow components could make the DIA ETF a compelling defensive play for 2025.
At one point in early November, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) briefly topped 48,000 for the first time ever. At different times in 2025, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 have also made new all-time highs (ATHs). Despite sharp price swings, it has been a strong year to own stocks. Yet many economists, analysts and investors remain uneasy. The market appears priced for perfection—but recession risks are not priced in. Bitcoin grabs headlines, but smart money likes this token
My research team has identified the token positioned at the absolute center of this incoming capital flood— a project so fundamentally essential to the crypto ecosystem that institutional investors simply cannot ignore it. Click here to get all the details Even with broad gains, skepticism persists. The Magnificent 7 trade may have cooled, but the market is clearly being lifted by a narrow group of names, mostly tied to the AI boom. The K-Shaped Economy Concern Current economic commentary focuses on a K-shaped recovery. Higher-income consumers are navigating inflation of around 3%—still above the Federal Reserve's informal 2% target but manageable for affluent households. Lower-income consumers, however, have been under pressure for several years. Rising credit defaults, delinquent auto loans and a recent uptick in foreclosures suggest the situation may be worsening. The labor market, once the economy's strongest pillar, is also showing early signs of strain. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) recently lowered its estimate of the probability of a recession from 60% to 40% due to the recent de-escalation of trade tensions. That still represents a meaningful risk. Market Breadth Remains Narrow as Investors Chase Mega-Caps Recent data from Charles Schwab shows the percentage of S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average was slightly above 50%. That's historically low breadth and adds to investor concern. This isn't a replay of 2021, when investors piled into unprofitable SPACs hoping to strike it rich. Today's froth is concentrated in mega-cap stocks that often have strong balance sheets, yet many investors feel these names remain overvalued. So what's an investor to do? Here are three holdings that could offer asymmetric return potential in an uneasy market. Procter & Gamble Has More Than a Dividend to Like Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) is part of the exclusive Dividend Kings club, having increased its dividend for at least 50 consecutive years—70 years in PG's case—making it a fixture in income-oriented portfolios. The 2.8% dividend yield could become more attractive if rates fall. Analysts' $171.53 price target implies roughly 17% upside for 2025. It's unclear how P&G's proposed acquisition of Kenvue (NYSE: KVUE) would affect its earnings. If the deal closes and the Tylenol controversies ease, the company would likely see a small EPS dilution in the first year. Over time, however, that initial dilution would likely reverse as cost synergies from the combination begin to boost earnings. Johnson & Johnson Doubles Down on Medtech and Oncology Growth The next company on this list is Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), which spun off Kenvue in 2023 to focus more on medtech and pharmaceuticals. Its recent $3.5 billion acquisition of Halda Therapeutics is an example of that strategy. The all-cash deal gives JNJ access to Halda's clinical-stage HLD-0915 candidate, a once-daily oral prostate cancer medication that has received fast-track designation from the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA). This acquisition meaningfully strengthens JNJ's oncology pipeline and should make the stock more appealing to growth-oriented investors. The DIA ETF Could Benefit From a Flight to Safety Over the past five years, many investors embraced a passive "SPY and chill" approach—buying the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY). SPY may still be a sensible holding, but with potential AI overexuberance, it may also be worth considering the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: DIA). If concerns about an AI bubble intensify, capital could rotate into the Dow 30 stocks that make up the index, making DIA a way to capture that flight to perceived safety. As of this writing, DIA has only about 37% institutional ownership, but it has seen net buying in seven of the last eight quarters. That suggests institutions may be building a hedge against a potential slowdown in the tech trade.
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