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Just For You 3 Smart Defensive Stocks for an Uneasy MarketWritten by Chris Markoch. Published 11/18/2025. 
Key Points - Despite new market highs, recession risks remain elevated due to weakening consumer credit and signs of job market stress.
- Procter & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson offer stable dividends, strong balance sheets, and catalysts that could provide upside in a downturn.
- A rotation away from AI and into Dow components could make the DIA ETF a compelling defensive play for 2025.
At one point in early November, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) briefly topped 48,000 for the first time. At different times in 2025, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 have made new all-time highs (ATHs). Despite sharp price swings, it's been a solid year to own stocks. Yet many economists, analysts, and investors remain uneasy. The market appears priced for perfection—but recession risks are not priced in. There are five truths reshaping America's financial future — and ignoring them could be costly. From an overextended government and vanishing savings to AI-driven job displacement and a widening wealth divide, the warning signs are clear. But according to Porter Stansberry, these same forces are also driving one of the largest wealth transfers in history. His new exposé, The Final Displacement, reveals the economic blueprint behind these shifts — and the final step he believes every American must take to protect and grow their wealth before it's too late. Click here to watch The Final Displacement for free Even with broad gains, skepticism persists. The Magnificent 7 trade may have cooled off, but the market is clearly being lifted by a narrow group of names, mostly tied to the AI boom. The K-Shaped Economy Concern Current economic commentary focuses on a K-shaped recovery. Higher-income consumers are navigating inflation of around 3%—still above the Federal Reserve's informal 2% target but manageable for affluent households. Lower-income consumers, however, have been under pressure for several years. Evidence in credit defaults, delinquent auto loans, and a recent uptick in foreclosures suggests this problem is worsening. The labor market had been the economy's strongest pillar, but even that is beginning to show signs of strain. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) recently lowered its estimate of the probability of a recession from 60% to 40% due to the recent de-escalation of trade tensions. That still represents a meaningful risk. Market Breadth Remains Narrow as Investors Chase Mega-Caps Recent data from Charles Schwab shows the percentage of S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average stood slightly above 50%. That's historically low market breadth, which adds to investors' concerns. This isn't a redux of 2021, when investors piled into unprofitable SPACs in hopes of quick windfalls. In many cases today, the froth comes from mega-cap companies that have ample cash on their balance sheets. Still, many investors feel several of these stocks are overvalued. So what's an investor to do? Here are three stocks (and ETFs) that offer asymmetric return potential in the current uneasy market. Procter & Gamble Has More Than a Dividend to Like Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) is part of the exclusive Dividend Kings club, meaning the company has increased its dividend for at least 50 consecutive years—70 years in PG's case, which makes it a staple for many income-oriented portfolios. The 2.8% dividend yield could look even more attractive if interest rates fall. Plus, 2025 brings potential growth—the $171.53 price target implies roughly 17% upside. It's unclear how the proposed acquisition of Kenvue (NYSE: KVUE) would affect P&G's earnings. If the deal goes through and the Tylenol controversy eases, there may be modest EPS dilution in the first year, followed by potential EPS accretion as cost synergies materialize. Johnson & Johnson Doubles Down on Medtech and Oncology Growth The next company on this list is Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), which spun off Kenvue in 2023 to focus on its medtech and pharmaceutical businesses. Its recent $3.5 billion acquisition of Halda Therapeutics exemplifies that strategy. The all-cash deal gives JNJ access to the clinical-stage company's HLD-0915 candidate, a once-daily oral prostate cancer medication that received fast-track designation from the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA). That should be a material addition to JNJ's oncology pipeline and could make the stock more appealing to growth-oriented investors. The DIA ETF Could Benefit From a Flight to Safety Over the past five years, many investors embraced a passive "SPY and chill" strategy—investing in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY). The SPY may still be a reasonable holding, but with potential AI overexuberance, it may also be time to consider the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: DIA). If concerns over an AI bubble prompt a rotation out of the largest tech names, there is likely to be a move into the more diversified, blue-chip constituents of the Dow 30. That rotation would make DIA a plausible asymmetric play to capture a flight to safety. As of this writing, DIA has approximately 37% institutional ownership, yet it has seen net buying in seven of the last eight quarters, suggesting institutions may be building a hedge against a slowdown in the tech trade.
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