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The Earnings360 Team
Today's Bonus Article 3 Smart Defensive Stocks for an Uneasy MarketWritten by Chris Markoch. Published 11/18/2025. 
Key Points - Despite new market highs, recession risks remain elevated due to weakening consumer credit and signs of job market stress.
- Procter & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson offer stable dividends, strong balance sheets, and catalysts that could provide upside in a downturn.
- A rotation away from AI and into Dow components could make the DIA ETF a compelling defensive play for 2025.
At one point in early November, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) briefly topped 48,000 for the first time ever. At different times in 2025, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 have made new all-time highs (ATHs). Despite volatility, it has been a strong year to own stocks. Yet many economists, analysts, and investors remain uneasy. The market looks priced for perfection—even as recession risks are not fully reflected in prices. The world's wealthiest individuals are making huge moves with their money.
Warren Buffett just liquidated billions of shares. Bill Gates sold 500,000 shares of Microsoft. Jeff Bezos filed to sell Amazon shares worth $4.8 billion.
What is going on? One multi-millionaire believes they are preparing for a catastrophic event. But not a crash, bank run, or recession. It's something we haven't see in America for more than a century. For the full story, click here. Even with broad gains, skepticism persists. The Magnificent 7 trade may have cooled, but the market is still being lifted by a narrow group of names, mostly tied to the AI boom. The K-Shaped Economy Concern Current commentary often points to a K-shaped recovery. Higher-income consumers are managing inflation around 3%—still above the Federal Reserve's informal 2% target but generally manageable for affluent households. Lower-income consumers, however, have been under pressure for several years. Rising credit defaults, delinquent auto loans and a recent uptick in foreclosures suggest the strain is worsening. The labor market, once the economy's strongest pillar, is beginning to show signs of weakening. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) recently reduced its estimated probability of a recession from 60% to 40% after trade tensions eased. That still implies a significant risk. Market Breadth Remains Narrow as Investors Chase Mega-Caps Data from Charles Schwab shows the percentage of S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average was slightly above 50%, a historically low level of market breadth that adds to investor concern. This isn't a redux of 2021, when investors piled into unprofitable SPACs hoping for quick gains. Today's froth is concentrated in mega-cap stocks that often have strong cash positions, yet many investors worry those shares are overvalued. So what should investors do? Below are three investments that offer an asymmetric return profile for an uneasy market. Procter & Gamble Has More Than a Dividend to Like Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) is a member of the Dividend Kings club, having increased its dividend for at least 50 consecutive years—70 years in PG's case—making it a staple for income-oriented portfolios. The current 2.8% dividend yield could become more attractive if interest rates fall. Additionally, the $171.53 price target implies roughly 17% upside from current levels. It remains unclear how Procter & Gamble's proposed acquisition of Kenvue (NYSE: KVUE) would affect near-term earnings. If the deal closes and the Tylenol controversy subsides, investors should expect modest EPS dilution in the first year. Over time, however, cost synergies between the companies would likely convert early dilution into a boost to EPS. Johnson & Johnson Doubles Down on Medtech and Oncology Growth Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) spun off Kenvue in 2023 to focus more squarely on medtech and pharmaceuticals. Its recent $3.5 billion acquisition of Haida Therapeutics is an example of that strategy. The all-cash deal gives JNJ access to the clinical-stage company's HLD-0915 drug candidate, a once-daily oral prostate cancer therapy that has received fast-track designation from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). This should be a meaningful addition to JNJ's oncology pipeline and make the stock more attractive to growth-oriented investors. The DIA ETF Could Benefit From a Flight to Safety Over the past five years many investors embraced a passive "SPY and chill" approach—allocating to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY). While SPY may still be a sensible core holding, potential AI overexuberance suggests it might be worth considering the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: DIA) as a defensive complement. If fears of an AI bubble gain traction, investors are likely to rotate into the more diversified, blue-chip names that make up the Dow 30, which would benefit DIA and make it a viable asymmetric hedge. As of this writing, DIA has only about 37% institutional ownership, but it has seen net buying in seven of the last eight quarters—suggesting institutions are gradually building a hedge against a potential slowdown in the tech trade.
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