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The Earnings360 Team
Today's Bonus Article The Off-Price Retail King? Why TJX Looks Ready to Break OutWritten by Thomas Hughes. Published 11/20/2025. 
Key Points - TJX Companies' Q3 results and guidance update point to the continuation of existing stock price trends.
- Cash flow fuels a healthy capital return, including dividends, distribution growth, and buybacks.
- Analysts and institutions are supporting this market and pushing it higher in late 2025.
The macroeconomic and retail environments are favorable for The TJX Companies' (NYSE: TJX) business, as reflected in its results and stock performance. Macroeconomic headwinds that shifted consumer habits and pressured results at many major retailers have created a stronger buying environment for off-price retailers like The TJX Companies, allowing it to offer attractive value to still-resilient consumers. $1 to Start Trading Smarter
Join Tim Sykes' AI-powered trading system — limited Black Friday offer. [Get Started for $1] The takeaway: industry-leading Q3 growth, outperformance and an improved full-year outlook—even if Q4 guidance was cautious—support the view that the uptrend in TJX shares is likely to continue. 
TJX Companies Outperforms and Raises Guidance for the Year The TJX Companies had a fantastic quarter, reporting revenue of $15.12 billion, up 7.0% year-over-year (YOY) and about 175 basis points ahead of consensus. Strength was driven by a 5% systemwide comparable sales increase, broad gains across divisions, and a 1.1% rise in store count. TJX Canada grew the fastest, up 8% YOY, followed by a 6% increase in the Marmaxx division, a 5% gain at HomeGoods, and 3% internationally. All segments contributed to net growth and margin improvement. Margin results were also strong. A better selling environment and revenue leverage improved gross margin by roughly 100 basis points; combined with operating efficiencies, this produced leveraged earnings gains. GAAP EPS rose 12%, helped by share repurchases that reduced the average share count by about 1.3% during the quarter. TJX provided Q4 guidance that was slightly below some expectations. Still, the shortfall is modest relative to MarketBeat's consensus and does not overshadow the strong year-to-date performance. Full-year guidance was raised, now calling for same-store sales growth of about 4% and EPS of $4.63 at the low end—more than a nickel above consensus. Given the company's historically conservative outlook, actual outperformance may emerge when Q4 results are reported in January. Capital Returns Drive TJX Companies Stock Price Higher Capital returns are a key driver of TJX's stock performance. The company returns cash through dividends and aggressive buybacks that reduce the share count annually. Its dividend is roughly average versus the S&P 500, but it appears secure and continues to grow. With a payout ratio below 40%, annual dividend increases are likely to continue. Excluding the COVID-19 pause, TJX has increased its distribution for nearly 30 years and could sustain a double-digit compound annual growth rate for the foreseeable future. TJX's balance sheet shows no red flags. Q3 highlights included higher current and total assets—driven by increases in cash and inventory—offset by modest liability growth and a reduction in debt. Shareholders' equity rose nearly 15%, leverage remains low, and the company is effectively net cash, with long-term debt around 0.2x equity. Analysts Trends Drive TJX Stock to New Highs The analysts' trends are robust and align with the fundamental and technical outlook: expanding coverage, firmer sentiment, 25 analysts rating the stock a Buy, and rising price targets. Consensus views the stock as fairly valued after Q3, but the trend points toward the high end of the range—near $170—implying roughly 17% upside from mid-November levels.
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