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The Earnings360 Team
Sunday's Bonus Content The Off-Price Retail King? Why TJX Looks Ready to Break OutWritten by Thomas Hughes. Published 11/20/2025. 
Key Points - TJX Companies' Q3 results and guidance update point to the continuation of existing stock price trends.
- Cash flow fuels a healthy capital return, including dividends, distribution growth, and buybacks.
- Analysts and institutions are supporting this market and pushing it higher in late 2025.
The macroeconomic and retail conditions are currently favorable for The TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX), as reflected in its results and stock price. Macroeconomic headwinds that have shifted consumer habits and challenged many major retailers have created a buying environment that favors off-price chains like The TJX Companies, allowing it to offer attractive value to resilient consumers. The world's wealthiest individuals are making huge moves with their money.
Warren Buffett just liquidated billions of shares. Bill Gates sold 500,000 shares of Microsoft. Jeff Bezos filed to sell Amazon shares worth $4.8 billion.
What is going on? One multi-millionaire believes they are preparing for a catastrophic event. But not a crash, bank run, or recession. It's something we haven't see in America for more than a century. For the full story, click here. The takeaway: industry-leading growth in Q3, clear outperformance, and an upward revision to full-year guidance — even as management remains cautiously optimistic on Q4 — suggest the uptrend in TJX shares is likely to continue. 
TJX Companies Outperforms and Raises Guidance for the Year The TJX Companies had an excellent quarter, reporting revenue of $15.12 billion, up 7.0% year-over-year (YOY) and 175 basis points above consensus. Strength was driven by a 5% systemwide comparable-sales gain, broad strength across divisions, and a 1.1% increase in store count. TJX Canada led the way with 8% YOY growth; the core Marmaxx divisions rose 6%; Home Goods increased 5%; and international sales were up 3%. All segments posted stronger net growth, which helped underpin margin expansion. Margins were also impressive. Revenue leverage and a favorable selling environment drove a 100-basis-point improvement in gross margin, and operating efficiencies further amplified earnings. GAAP EPS rose 12%; share repurchases reduced the share count by an average of 1.3% during the quarter. Management's Q4 guidance came in a bit below some expectations, but the shortfall is modest versus MarketBeat's consensus and does not negate the strong year-to-date performance. As a result, full-year guidance was raised: comp-store growth is now expected to be about 4%, with EPS at the low end of the range of $4.63 — more than a nickel above consensus. Given management's cautious posture, actual results could again outpace guidance when Q4 results are reported in January. Capital Returns Drive TJX Companies Stock Price Higher Capital returns are an important driver of the TJX stock. The company returns cash through dividends and aggressive share buybacks, steadily reducing its share count. The dividend yield is roughly in line with the S&P 500, but the payout is secure and the distribution is growing. With a payout ratio below 40%, annual dividend increases are likely to continue. Excluding the COVID-19 pause, TJX has raised its distribution for nearly 30 consecutive years and appears capable of sustaining strong compound growth in the dividend for the foreseeable future. TJX Companies' balance sheet shows no red flags and offers incentives for ownership. Q3 highlights included higher current and total assets—driven by cash and inventory—modest increases in liabilities, and a reduction in debt. Shareholders' equity rose nearly 15%, leverage remains low, and the company is effectively net cash, with long-term debt around 0.2x equity. Analyst Trends Drive TJX Stock to New Highs The analyst trends align with the fundamental and technical outlook: coverage has increased, sentiment has firmed, 25 analysts rate the stock a Buy, and price targets have trended higher. While consensus now prices the stock as roughly fair value after Q3, the directional trend points to the high end of the range — near $170 — implying roughly 17% upside from mid-November levels.
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