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Sunday's Bonus Story Battle of the Black Friday Stocks: Amazon vs. Walmart vs. TargetWritten by Nathan Reiff. Published 11/17/2025. 
Key Points - U.S. consumers are projected to spend more than $1 trillion on holiday shopping for the first time ever.
- Major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target are poised to benefit from this trend.
- Walmart's omnichannel approach may give it an advantage on Black Friday, but Amazon's unparalleled logistics network and competitive pricing make it an overall holiday retail winner.
As Black Friday's reach extends into Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday, and even the entire month of November in some cases, retail sales stretch accordingly. The National Retail Federation estimates that the 2025 winter holidays (covering November to December) will exceed $1 trillion in U.S. retail sales for the first time, a rise of roughly 3.7% to 4.2% over 2024. Despite waning consumer confidence and inflationary pressures, Black Friday remains a key driver of holiday spending. Porter Stansberry and Jeff Brown say a new U.S. national emergency is already underway — and it could trigger the biggest forced rotation of capital since World War II.
They reveal why Trump is mobilizing America's tech giants… and name the two stocks most likely to soar as trillions shift behind the scenes. Watch the National Emergency broadcast here Three core retailers positioned to benefit from increased post-Thanksgiving spending are Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT). How will these retail giants fare in 2025, and which is likely to come out on top? Amazon: The Online Juggernaut In the United States, Amazon is the undisputed leader in online retail. Although the e-commerce giant has diversified into cloud services, advertising, and other businesses in recent years, its retail operation remains substantial. The company's Black Friday deals typically run for nearly two weeks — from November 20 to December 1 — with discounts across all categories. Electronics, toys, and beauty have traditionally been among the top-selling items during this period. In 2024, Amazon hosted its most successful Black Friday event to date and has been cited as having the lowest online prices of any major U.S. retailer — a position it has maintained for nearly a decade. Amazon's unmatched product breadth and ability to outprice rivals stem largely from its logistics and scale advantages. The company is also positioning its vast distribution network to further disrupt grocery — one of the few areas where brick-and-mortar stores have historically held an edge. Walmart: The Omnichannel King Originally a traditional retailer, Walmart has successfully pivoted to an omnichannel model that blends in-store experiences with robust online capabilities. This strategy has paid off in the U.S. and abroad, contributing to some of the company's strongest recent earnings. Walmart has also attracted third-party sellers from other marketplaces, making its e-commerce marketplace an increasingly important driver of growth. Its extensive fulfillment network allows competitive pricing and smarter inventory planning for both online and in-store demand, and the company benefits from one of the most loyal customer bases among major retailers. Target: The Challenger Because Target is smaller than Amazon and Walmart, it has carved out a niche to remain competitive during Black Friday. The company emphasizes curation — including a tighter third-party marketplace and a more selective assortment of brands. That approach has helped Target earn a reputation for delivering strong value on quality items across categories. Its store pickup program, where customers order online and collect in-store, became popular during the COVID-19 pandemic and remains widely used. Target has faced headwinds in recent quarters, including a consumer backlash after changes to its DEI program. The Black Friday period could be an opportunity for the company to regain momentum or, alternatively, fall further behind its larger competitors. Key Metrics Comparison On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, Walmart appears to have the most momentum into Black Friday. WMT shares are up about 14% this year, compared with gains of roughly 8% for AMZN and a decline of about 34% for TGT. Looking at holiday revenue expectations, Amazon forecasts fourth-quarter revenue between $206 billion and $213 billion; the other two companies had not provided public holiday revenue forecasts as of this writing. Amazon's online store sales for the latest quarter reached $67.4 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, representing about 63% of total sales for the period. Walmart's latest annual report shows $121 billion in online sales, accounting for just under 18% of total revenue during the period. Target does not publish the same online-sales breakdown, but its digital comparable sales growth has recently outpaced overall sales growth. So, Who Wins Black Friday 2025? Given its omnichannel strategy, large and loyal customer base, and competitive pricing, Walmart looks well positioned to lead the Black Friday retail race this year. Investors who want exposure to that performance might consider buying shares ahead of its earnings release, expected on November 20, which will cover the Black Friday sales period. That said, when viewed across the broader retail landscape, Amazon may emerge as the long-term leader. It is positioned to win across a wider range of products at lower prices, and it benefits from tailwinds from AWS, cloud services, and its advertising business. Moreover, while Black Friday itself is most prominent in the United States, the holiday season matters globally — and Amazon's large international footprint gives it an additional advantage.
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