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Further Reading from MarketBeat Media Battle of the Black Friday Stocks: Amazon vs. Walmart vs. TargetWritten by Nathan Reiff. Published 11/17/2025. 
Key Points - U.S. consumers are projected to spend more than $1 trillion on holiday shopping for the first time ever.
- Major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target are poised to benefit from this trend.
- Walmart's omnichannel approach may give it an advantage on Black Friday, but Amazon's unparalleled logistics network and competitive pricing make it an overall holiday retail winner.
As Black Friday's reach now extends to Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday, and even the entire month of November in some cases, retail sales have expanded along with it. The National Retail Federation estimates that the 2025 winter holidays (November through December) will exceed $1 trillion in U.S. retail sales for the first time, an increase of 3.7% to 4.2% over 2024. Despite the headwinds of waning consumer confidence and inflation, Black Friday remains an important driver of holiday-season sales. $1 to Start Trading Smarter
Join Tim Sykes' AI-powered trading system — limited Black Friday offer. [Get Started for $1] Three core retailers positioned to benefit from increased post-Thanksgiving spending are Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT). How will these retail giants fare in 2025, and which is likely to come out on top? Amazon: The Online Juggernaut In the United States, Amazon is the undisputed leader in online retail. Although the e-commerce giant has expanded into cloud computing, advertising, and other services in recent years, its retail business remains substantial. Amazon's Black Friday deals run for nearly two weeks, from November 20 to December 1, and cover all categories, with electronics, toys, and beauty traditionally among the top sellers during the period. In 2024 the company hosted its most successful Black Friday event to date. It also consistently advertises the lowest online prices of any major U.S. retailer, a distinction it has maintained for nearly a decade. Amazon's vast product selection and ability to undercut rivals on price are supported by significant logistics advantages. The firm is also preparing to leverage its distribution network to disrupt the grocery space, one of the few remaining areas where brick-and-mortar stores have retained an edge. Walmart: The Omnichannel King Originally a traditional retailer, Walmart has been one of the most successful legacy chains to pivot to an omnichannel strategy that blends in-store and online shopping. This approach has helped drive some of the company's best recent earnings, both in the U.S. and internationally. Walmart has even attracted third-party sellers from Amazon's platform, making its e-commerce marketplace an important growth engine. Moreover, Walmart's robust fulfillment network allows it to price competitively and manage inventory across channels. The company also benefits from one of the most loyal customer bases among large retailers. Target: The Challenger Though a household name, Target's smaller scale compared with Amazon and Walmart has pushed the company to build a niche to remain competitive during Black Friday. Target emphasizes curation — a relatively narrow third-party marketplace and a more selective assortment of brands than some rivals. That strategy has helped the retailer earn a reputation for offering good value on quality items across categories. Target's buy-online-pick-up-in-store program surged in popularity during the COVID-19 pandemic and remains widely used. Target faced challenges in recent quarters, including a widespread boycott after rolling back elements of its DEI program. The Black Friday period could be an opportunity to rebound or, alternatively, to fall further behind competitors. Key Metrics Comparison On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, Walmart has the most momentum heading into Black Friday. WMT shares are up about 14% this year, compared with gains of roughly 8% for AMZN and a decline of about 34% for TGT. Looking at holiday revenue estimates, Amazon forecasts fourth-quarter revenues between $206 billion and $213 billion; neither Walmart nor Target has published specific holiday revenue forecasts as of this writing. Amazon's online store sales for the latest quarter reached $67.4 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, representing roughly 63% of total sales for the period. Walmart's latest annual report showed $121 billion in online sales, just under 18% of total revenue. Target does not provide a similar online-sales breakdown, but its digital comparable sales growth has recently outpaced overall sales growth. So, Who Wins Black Friday 2025? With a broad omnichannel strategy, a large and loyal customer base, and competitive pricing, it's hard to imagine Walmart not leading the Black Friday retail race this year. Investors looking to capitalize on Walmart's momentum may consider buying shares ahead of its earnings release, expected on November 20, which will cover the Black Friday sales period. That said, in the broader retail landscape Amazon remains a formidable contender. It is uniquely positioned to dominate across a wider range of product categories at lower prices and benefits from the tailwinds of AWS, cloud services, and advertising revenue. Additionally, while Black Friday is primarily a U.S. phenomenon, the overall holiday season matters globally — and Amazon's massive international footprint gives it another advantage heading into the holidays.
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