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The Earnings360 Team
Today's Featured Article 3 Smart Defensive Stocks for an Uneasy MarketWritten by Chris Markoch. Published 11/18/2025. 
Key Points - Despite new market highs, recession risks remain elevated due to weakening consumer credit and signs of job market stress.
- Procter & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson offer stable dividends, strong balance sheets, and catalysts that could provide upside in a downturn.
- A rotation away from AI and into Dow components could make the DIA ETF a compelling defensive play for 2025.
At one point in early November, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) briefly topped 48,000 for the first time ever. At different times in 2025, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 have made new all-time highs (ATHs). Despite sharp price swings, it has been a solid year to own stocks. Yet many economists, analysts, and investors remain uneasy. The market appears priced for perfection—but recession risks are not priced in. For the first time ever, James Altucher – one of America's top venture capitalists – is sharing how ANYONE can get a pre-IPO stake in SpaceX… with as little as $100! [[Click here now to view.]] Even with broad gains, skepticism persists. The Magnificent 7 trade may have cooled off, but the market is still being lifted by a narrow group of names, many tied to the AI boom. The K-Shaped Economy Concern Current economic commentary focuses on a K-shaped recovery. Higher-income consumers are navigating inflation of around 3%—still above the Federal Reserve's informal 2% target but manageable for affluent households. Lower-income consumers, however, have been under pressure for several years. Rising credit defaults, an increase in delinquent auto loans, and a recent uptick in foreclosures suggest this problem is worsening. The labor market has been the economy's strongest pillar, but it is beginning to show signs of strain. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) recently lowered its estimate of the probability of a recession from 60% to 40% following a de-escalation of trade tensions. That still represents a meaningful risk. Market Breadth Remains Narrow as Investors Chase Mega-Caps Recent data from Charles Schwab shows the percentage of S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average was slightly above 50%. That's historically low market breadth, which adds to investors' concerns. This isn't a redux of 2021, when investors piled into unprofitable SPACs in hopes of striking it rich. In many cases today, the froth is concentrated in mega-cap stocks that have large cash balances. Still, many investors feel some of these names are overvalued. So what's an investor to do? Here are three stocks that offer the potential for an asymmetric return in an uneasy market. Procter & Gamble Has More Than a Dividend to Like Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) is a member of the exclusive Dividend Kings club, having increased its dividend for at least 50 consecutive years—70 years in PG's case—making it a staple for many income-oriented investors. The 2.8% dividend yield could look even better if rates fall. Plus, the $171.53 price target implies roughly 17% upside from current levels. It's unclear how P&G's proposed acquisition of Kenvue (NYSE: KVUE) would affect earnings. If the deal closes and the Tylenol controversy subsides, the transaction would likely cause modest EPS dilution in the first year. Over time, however, that dilution could reverse as cost synergies between the companies begin to materialize, potentially boosting EPS. Johnson & Johnson Doubles Down on Medtech and Oncology Growth The next company on this list is Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), which spun off Kenvue in 2023 to focus more on medtech and pharmaceuticals. Its recent $3.5 billion acquisition of Haida Therapeutics is an example of that strategy in action. The all-cash deal gives JNJ access to the clinical-stage company's HLD-0915 drug candidate, a once-daily oral prostate cancer medication that received fast-track designation from the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA). That addition should materially strengthen JNJ's oncology pipeline and make the stock more attractive to growth-oriented investors. The DIA ETF Could Benefit From a Flight to Safety Over the past five years, many investors embraced a passive "SPY and chill" approach by investing in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY). SPY may still be a reasonable core holding, but with potential AI overexuberance, it could also make sense to consider the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: DIA). If concerns over an AI bubble accelerate, a rotation into the Dow 30 components is likely. That would make DIA a sensible asymmetric play to capture a flight to blue-chip, diversified names. As of this writing, DIA has roughly 37% institutional ownership. It has seen more buying than selling in seven of the last eight quarters, suggesting institutions may be building a hedge against a possible slowdown in the tech trade.
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