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The Earnings360 Team
Additional Reading from MarketBeat Media 3 Smart Defensive Stocks for an Uneasy MarketWritten by Chris Markoch. Published 11/18/2025. 
Key Points - Despite new market highs, recession risks remain elevated due to weakening consumer credit and signs of job market stress.
- Procter & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson offer stable dividends, strong balance sheets, and catalysts that could provide upside in a downturn.
- A rotation away from AI and into Dow components could make the DIA ETF a compelling defensive play for 2025.
In early November, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) briefly topped 48,000 for the first time ever. At different points in 2025, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 also reached new all-time highs (ATHs). Despite sharp price swings, it's been a strong year to own stocks. Still, many economists, analysts, and investors remain uneasy. The market appears priced for perfection—recession risks, some argue, are not fully reflected in prices. Tim Bohen says it doesn't matter whether AI stocks surge, slip, or move sideways — his newest setup is built to work across all three. It's a simple "win/win" style plan focused on a key piece of the AI supply chain that every major tech company depends on, making it one of the most adaptable ideas he's shared this year.
This holiday season, I'm giving you more than just my "win either way" trade plan for AI. Check out all the bonuses you'll get for just $1. Unlock Tim's #1 AI trade plan for $1 Even with broad gains, skepticism persists. The Magnificent 7 trade may have cooled, but a narrow group of mega-cap names tied to the AI boom continues to lift the market. The K-Shaped Economy Concern Current commentary often describes a K-shaped economy: higher-income consumers are navigating inflation of around 3%—still above the Federal Reserve's informal 2% target but manageable for affluent households. Lower-income consumers, however, have been under pressure for several years. Rising credit defaults, delinquent auto loans, and an uptick in foreclosures suggest this problem may be worsening. The labor market had been the economy's strongest pillar, but even that is beginning to show strain. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) recently reduced its estimate of the probability of a recession from 60% to 40%—largely because trade tensions have eased—but that still represents a meaningful risk. Market Breadth Remains Narrow as Investors Chase Mega-Caps Data from Charles Schwab shows the percentage of S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages was only slightly above 50%. That historically low market breadth adds to investor concern. This isn't a repeat of 2021, when many piled into unprofitable SPACs hoping for quick gains. Today's froth is concentrated in mega-cap companies that often have substantial cash on their balance sheets. Still, many investors feel some of these names are overvalued. So what's an investor to do? Below are three stocks (and one ETF) that offer the potential for asymmetric returns in this uneasy market. Procter & Gamble Has More Than a Dividend to Like Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) is a member of the Dividend Kings club, having increased its dividend for at least 50 consecutive years—70 years in PG's case—making it a staple for income-oriented portfolios. The 2.8% dividend yield could look more attractive if interest rates fall. Additionally, the $171.53 price target implies roughly 17% upside. It's unclear how the company's proposed acquisition of Kenvue (NYSE: KVUE) would affect earnings. If the deal goes through and any Tylenol-related controversies subside, investors should expect modest EPS dilution in the first year. Over time, however, cost synergies between the companies would likely convert that dilution into an EPS tailwind. Johnson & Johnson Doubles Down on Medtech and Oncology Growth Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) spun off Kenvue in 2023 to focus more squarely on medtech and pharmaceuticals. Its recent $3.5 billion acquisition of Halda Therapeutics illustrates that strategy. The all-cash deal gives JNJ access to Halda's clinical-stage HLD-0915 candidate, a once-daily oral prostate cancer therapy that has received fast-track designation from the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA). That addition materially strengthens JNJ's oncology pipeline and should make the stock more appealing to investors seeking growth within a defensive framework. The DIA ETF Could Benefit From a Flight to Safety Over the past five years, many investors have embraced a passive "SPY and chill" approach—investing in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY). SPY may still be a reasonable holding, but with potential AI-driven overexuberance, it could make sense to consider the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: DIA). If concerns about an AI bubble lead to a rotation out of mega-cap tech, investors are likely to move toward the Dow 30 blue-chips, which would make DIA a good way to capture that flight-to-safety trade. As of this writing, DIA has roughly 37% institutional ownership. Still, it has seen net buying in seven of the last eight quarters, suggesting institutions may be building a hedge against a potential slowdown in the tech trade.
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