This Game Created 94% Gains Before Wiping Them Out
byCOVID-19-
Roblox launched its namesake platform in 2006. But its popularity took off during the COVID-19 pandemic. When schools closed, the user base surged.
This Game Created 94% Gains Before Wiping Them Out
By Ethan Goldman, junior analyst, Chaikin Analytics
You might not play its video games... but there's a good chance you've heard talk about Roblox (RBLX).
In short, Roblox's platform lets gamers around the world connect in virtual games – or as the company calls them, "experiences."
But Roblox itself doesn't make the games. Users can design and code their own games using the company's proprietary engine.
It's a big hit. Both kids and adults across the globe are hooked to the seemingly endless choices that Roblox's platform provides.
Again, you might not play the games yourself. But you might know somebody – or more likely, somebody's kid – who does.
As of its most recent quarter, the company boasts nearly 112 million average daily active users worldwide.
Roblox launched its namesake platform in 2006. But its popularity took off during the COVID-19 pandemic. When schools closed, the user base surged.
So it was no surprise that in March 2021, Roblox went public. The company did so via a direct listing (also known as a direct public offering, or "DPO") instead of an initial public offering ("IPO").
(In a DPO, a company sells its shares directly to the public on a stock exchange. Typically, this happens without the company raising new capital.)
Roblox's stock closed at $69.50 per share after the DPO. By mid-November the same year, it had climbed to a high of $134.72 per share.
Folks, that's a 94% gain in roughly eight months.
But then, things fell off the rails. Roblox collapsed over the next few months. It bottomed at $23.19 per share in May 2022.
That marked a staggering loss of 83%... in just about six months.
From there, Roblox traded largely sideways for the next two years. And then, it started surging higher.
At the end of this past September, it hit an all-time high.
In the chart below, you can see the wild ride for the stock since the company went public...
By now, Roblox is up roughly 206% over the past year alone. That's an incredible gain.
But today, the Power Gauge is flashing a warning for Roblox. And based on the history of Roblox's stock, we could see a big decline on the horizon...
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The Power Gauge Warns That Roblox May Repeat Its History
As I said, Roblox's stock has a volatile history. More recently, the stock has been on a huge surge higher.
A big part of that jump happened this year. And the Power Gauge saw the strength. Since April, the Roblox has been almost completely in "bullish" territory." Take a look...
However, you can see some changes recently...
In late September, the Power Gauge changed Roblox's rating to "neutral."
You'll also notice that Roblox has seen consistent buying activity from the "smart money" on Wall Street for most of the past year.
Previous dips didn't last long. But the most recent dip is much heavier. And that happened along with the rating change in the Power Gauge.
But folks, there's an even more concerning trend at play here...
Roblox has been losing money since its DPO. It has never reported positive earnings in any quarter since going public.
For most quarters over the past two years, Roblox reported a less-than-expected earnings loss. Investors were hopeful that Roblox was turning a corner.
But in its most recent quarter, Roblox missed earnings estimates by about 8%.
Put simply, the Power Gauge saw an upward trend for Roblox. But now, it's flashing some warning signs.
Remember that Roblox skyrocketed after its DPO before losing 83% of its value.
To be clear, the Power Gauge isn't outright "bearish" on Roblox right now. I'm not saying that a total collapse is imminent.
But instead of chasing more gains in the stock, I recommend following the Power Gauge's warning right now. There are better places to put money to work.
Good investing,
Ethan Goldman
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
-1.86%
6
14
10
S&P 500
-2.7%
96
264
143
Nasdaq
-3.47%
26
54
20
Small Caps
-2.99%
372
1161
382
Bonds
+1.61%
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks have turned somewhat Bearish. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Utilities
+1.45%
Consumer Staples
+0.09%
Health Care
-1.87%
Information Technology
-2.22%
Financial
-2.9%
Industrials
-2.92%
Communication
-3.08%
Real Estate
-3.33%
Materials
-3.35%
Consumer Discretionary
-3.83%
Energy
-4.15%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Insurance Services
9
28
16
Over the past 6 months, the Insurance subsector (KIE) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -20.06%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Weak, with more Bearish than Bullish stocks. It is currently ranked #15 of 21 subsectors and has moved down 1 slot over the past week.
Indicative Stocks
AGO
Assured Guaranty Ltd
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher
AON
Aon plc
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
PEP
+3.71%
MKTX
+3.0%
AZO
+2.72%
ORLY
+2.44%
PM
+2.31%
Losers
SNPS
-9.39%
MOS
-9.24%
TER
-9.03%
HOOD
-8.85%
SMCI
-8.83%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Earnings Surprises
No significant Earnings Surprises in the Russell 3000.
* * * *
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