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When Nobel Laureates Speak Investors Should Listen

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October 15, 2025

 

When Nobel Laureates Speak Investors Should Listen

By Nathan Slaughter

 

And the Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences goes to…

Economic historian Joel Mokyr, who will share the prestigious award with academic colleagues Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt. Digging into the root causes of sustained economic expansion, this trio was the first to utilize mathematical modeling techniques to help explain and even quantify the abstract concept of "creative destruction."

Drawing on waves of scientific advance and societal progress dating back to the Industrial Revolution, the team's illuminating research shines new light on our understanding of disruptive technologies.

Picture a map from 1765 (when Scottish inventor James Watt patented his steam engine). The natural world looked quite a bit different back then. Over the decades, geologic features have been dramatically altered by the wind, rain and tide. Shorelines have receded, river channels bent, cliffs eroded.

In much the same way, there are powerful forces constantly battering and reshaping the business world. Back in 2009, stalwarts like GE, AT&T, Exxon, and China Construction Bank were all among the world's 10 largest companies (ranked by market cap). Now none of them make the list. In fact, there has been 90% turnover among the rankings — nine of the 10 names have changed.

The relentless pursuit of efficiency inevitably gives way to transformative breakthroughs that can gradually decay (and inevitably destroy) entire industries. Once they crumble and fall, something newer and better is rebuilt in their place. This unyielding state of creative destruction is disorderly and messy, but also critical to continued growth and advancement.

Without it, there is only stagnation.

Innovation is a constant cycle of death and rebirth. Mokyr used the example of weavers losing old jobs and finding new ones when labor-intensive hand looms gave way to cotton mills and textile factories. As investors, we instinctively understand this phenomenon, which is why we place so much importance on protective economic moats – and why we vigilantly watch for the next big disruptive force.

You can see (or hear) it all around us.

Gen Xers like me recall upgrading our Led Zeppelin collections in the early 1980's when vinyl and 8-tracks transitioned into cassette tapes. I still have fond memories of listening to my first Sony Walkman. But it wasn't long before the leap to CD players, with their space-age look and superior sound quality. So off we went to the mall in search of Van Halen's new 5150 album.

But then even CD players took the first step towards obsolescence when a South Korean company introduced the first digital audio MP3 player in 1998. Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) was quick to spot the potential and immediately laid the groundwork for the iPod. Or maybe you were one of the few (like me) who opted for the competing Microsoft (NSDQ: MSFT) Zune.

Doesn't matter — the entire product category was later supplanted by streaming services such as Spotify and Pandora. Music is no different than anything else. Take almost any product – from golf clubs to video game consoles – and technology has upgraded it over the years… or replaced it entirely.

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Today, we are seeing this cycle play out across multiple sectors, giving rise to massive wealth creation. But these developments and product launches don't just happen overnight. They are the result of heavy spending and many tireless R&D hours.

Take Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NSDQ: REGN). Founded thirty years ago by a group of physician-scientists, Regeneron invests heavily to develop effective biologic treatments for cancer, asthma, and other ailments. Those drugs brought in $14.2 billion in revenue last year, and management dutifully pumped $5.1 billion right back into research & development (R&D).

That means the company is reinvesting one-third of its sales to fuel the discoveries of tomorrow. And those investments are paying off handsomely. Regeneron currently has a robust pipeline of 40 promising candidates awaiting clinical trials and FDA approval – including several potential blockbusters.

Investors don't always appreciate the unsung efforts of professionals toiling away in research labs. But this is the nursery of new ideas and advances.

It stands to reason that tomorrow's winners are on the cusp of big breakthroughs today. There's no better place to begin looking for these future stars than the R&D department – the lifeblood of most organizations. Without enough ideas circulating through the system, even powerful firms can wither up and die.

By contrast, those with a culture of innovation typically find ways to elevate their products, engage customers, and generate market-beating returns for shareholders. I classify R&D breakthroughs by their potential to shake the ground around them.

Incremental Innovation: These are routine tweaks that enhance existing products. Think of Hershey (NYSE: HSY) sweetening its chocolate Kisses by filling them with cherry or peanut butter – a new twist on an old favorite.

Breakout Innovation: This next level involves bigger enhancements that raise the bar for all other players. Think adaptive cruise control, lane departure and collision warnings, automatic breaking and other sensor-enabled safety features becoming common in the auto industry.

Game-Changing Innovation: These financial earthquakes can be orders of magnitude more powerful than the first two. They not only transform an industry, but create brand new ones from scratch. We're seeing this seismic shift play out today in the quantum computing and artificial intelligence fields.

The never-ending process of creative destruction can be a double-edged sword for investors, punishing businesses that are behind the curve and slow to adapt, while greatly rewarding those on the cutting edge.

That doesn't mean blindly invest in companies that are throwing around buckets of cash. Like anything else, you'll want to see a return on that investment. Some failure-ridden firms continually pour money into black holes with little to show for it. Look for tangible signs of success… patents, intellectual property rights, and a proven history of commercializing ideas and bringing viable new products to market.

Legendary hockey player Wayne Gretzky scored a record 894 goals during his remarkable career. When asked his secret, he replied: "skate where the puck is going to be, not where it has been."

One thing's for sure – the puck never stops. Congratulations to Professor Mokyr and his team.

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