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For Your Education and Enjoyment

Tempus AI Hits $100—Are Shares Due for a Pullback?

Written by Leo Miller. Published 10/15/2025.

Close up of robot hand open palm of hand with medical cross hologram floating. Hand showing medical cross holographic while accessing and connecting with medical data to diagnosis symptom. Salubrious.

Key Points

  • Tempus AI has been one of the most talked about names to IPO in the past few years.
  • The stock briefly soared above $100 and is still up more than 150% from its initial price.
  • What's driving the stock's recent gains, and should investors worry about a larger correction in this name?

Tempus AI (NASDAQ: TEM) has been publicly traded for only 16 months, and it has been a market standout over that time. Compared to its IPO price of $37, Tempus shares were roughly 155% higher on Monday, Oct. 13. The stock first eclipsed $100 on Oct. 8 and reached an intraday high of $104 on Oct. 9, before pulling back to close near $94 on Oct. 13.

Below, we'll review the recent developments behind Tempus AI's share-price move and, more importantly, analyze what the future may hold. Is the rally overdone, or do the fundamentals suggest further upside?

Device Clearances and Trump's AI Cancer Order Send Tempus Flying

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Much of the recent strength in this healthcare stock reflects several key events. On Sept. 11, Tempus announced it received 510(k) clearance from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for its updated Tempus Pixel medical device. Pixel is an artificial intelligence (AI)-powered cardiac imaging platform that provides numerical data about the condition of different heart tissues. Tempus says this quantitative output can reveal issues that may be missed by visual inspection alone and can generate automated image reports, reducing the time clinicians spend on manual interpretation. Tempus shares jumped nearly 14% on the news.

The company also received 510(k) clearance for its Tempus xR IVD device on Sept. 22. That test analyzes cancerous tissue through RNA sequencing and is aimed at helping drug developers design better trials by identifying patients whose tumors are more likely to respond to specific treatments. While shares initially spiked on the announcement, they ultimately closed lower that day.

Finally, on Sept. 30, President Trump signed an executive order directing federal agencies to develop programs and increase investment in AI to fight pediatric cancer. The move aligns with Tempus's mission and opened the possibility of government-funded initiatives that could benefit the company. Tempus later confirmed on Oct. 9 that it was working with a U.S. government agency to support cancer research, although shares closed lower on that announcement as well.

Consensus Projects +20% Downside in TEM; Recent Targets Provide Some Solace

The MarketBeat-tracked consensus price target on Tempus sits just under $72, implying a potential downside of roughly 24% from current levels. Yet several recent analyst updates are more encouraging. HC Wainwright raised its forecast from $90 to $98 on Sept. 12, and Guggenheim lifted its price target from $80 to $95 on Sept. 26. Those revisions imply between essentially flat and about 4% upside versus the recent trading range.

While that upside is modest, the upgraded targets at least provide some justification for the stock's recent rally and suggest that certain analysts view the company's prospects more favorably than the broader consensus.

Multiple Factors Point to Tempus Being Overbought

Valuation is a concern. Tempus trades at a forward enterprise value to sales (EV/S) ratio of roughly 12x, well above the approximately 6x average forward EV/S for U.S. large-cap life sciences tools and services companies.

President Trump's executive order is a clear positive for the sector, but without a deeper understanding of the market opportunity for Tempus's newly cleared devices, it's difficult to quantify how much revenue they will generate. Importantly, 510(k) clearance means a device is considered "substantially equivalent" to an existing device; it does not necessarily indicate the product is superior or uniquely transformative. Tempus still must prove that these products will gain adoption and translate into meaningful revenue.

Taken together — the elevated valuation and relatively muted Wall Street forecasts — the evidence suggests the recent rally may be overextended. Over the long term, Tempus could still perform well given the company's relatively small revenues compared with overall pharma R&D spending (see analysis). For now, however, investors should approach the stock with caution and consider whether the current price adequately reflects execution risk and adoption timelines.


 

 
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