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Today's Bonus Story Advance Auto Parts is A Great Risk/Reward Play If EPS DeliversWritten by Gabriel Osorio-Mazilli. Published 9/22/2025. 
Key Points - The current setup in the automotive industry has a few similarities to that of the post-COVID-19 environment, creating a new opportunity.
- Advance Auto Parts is exposed to another cycle of outperformance in the industry, with the right fundamental setup.
- Institutions are buying ahead of the forecasted EPS expansion scenario that's coming to this stock.
One of the main drivers of a stock's performance is a business's future earnings-per-share (EPS) growth. With this in mind, one of the simplest ways for investors to uncover an upside opportunity is to identify companies trading well below their relative highs but poised to close those gaps based on projected EPS growth. In the automotive sector, a single stock meets this profile: a discounted price paired with meaningful upside potential. It's a compelling risk-to-reward setup for buyers, provided the company delivers on its EPS promise. The Fed just cut rates — and Wall Street insiders are already repositioning. While Powell's 0.25% move may look small, it could mark the start of a much larger cycle that threatens the dollar's value and puts ordinary investors at risk.
With another Fed meeting just weeks away, the window to prepare is closing fast. A new report reveals why this shift could spark renewed inflation — and outlines three urgent steps Americans can take right now to protect their savings. Get your free guide before the next Fed meeting A key advantage is that even if the company falls short of growth targets, the stock's already discounted valuation limits potential losses. That stock is Advance Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE: AAP), a key player in both B2B and retail automotive parts supply. Advance Auto Parts is well‐positioned given current industry conditions: trade tariffs are constraining new‐vehicle production, while consumers and dealers turn to the used‐vehicle market, boosting demand for aftermarket parts. Breaking Down the Advance Auto Parts Setup Although AAP currently trades at 85% of its 52-week high—up 28.2% year-to-date—its price action remains a shadow of its broader upside potential. In 2022, the stock briefly reached $244 per share amid supply‐chain disruptions following COVID-19 lockdowns, which constrained new‐vehicle inventories and drove consumers toward used cars. While semiconductor shortages aren't as severe today, tariffs have created a similar backdrop for new‐vehicle availability. Rising costs and uncertainty have slowed production and imports, leaving buyers to explore the used‐vehicle market. Used vehicles require more upkeep, fueling demand for aftermarket parts among both dealers prepping cars for resale and individual consumers. And those who stick with their current vehicles also need regular maintenance. Either way, parts demand should rise—precisely where the MarketBeat EPS consensus forecast of $1.05 by Q3 2025 comes into play. Momentum Arriving Ahead of Schedule Wall Street expects EPS to grow 52% from today's $0.69, but the most recent quarterly result suggests that bullish thesis may already be playing out. AAP reported $0.69 in EPS, comfortably topping the $0.59 consensus. One helpful valuation metric here is the price-to-earnings-growth (PEG) ratio, which gauges whether future growth is already priced in. At just 0.3x, AAP's PEG implies roughly 70% of its projected growth remains unpriced. Institutional investors share this optimism. In August 2025, State Street boosted its AAP stake by 13.5%, raising its holdings to $111.9 million—4% of the company. Whether driven by momentum, fundamentals, or both, professional investors see upside ahead. One final factor to consider when weighing AAP's asymmetric risk-to-reward profile is its size: with a market capitalization of $3.6 billion, it has more room to double than larger peers. Absent a significant disappointment or industry upheaval, downside appears limited, underscoring the stock's potential for outsized returns.
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