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For Your Education and Enjoyment Lululemon Share Price Has Plenty of Room Left to FallWritten by Thomas Hughes. Published 9/5/2025. 
Key Points - Lululemon's stock price decline isn't over yet, but the bottom is in sight and will likely be reached by early 2026.
- Bearish forces aligned against retail traders in the second half of 2025 and are strengthening.
- A move to historical lows, aligning with 2018's move to new highs, is possible.
After years of underperformance, the downtrend in Lululemon (NASDAQ: LULU) shares appears to be nearing its end. The Q2 release triggered a sharp sell-off, pushing the stock toward long-term lows and potentially ultra-deep value levels. Trading near $165, LULU sits at the critical support established during the height of COVID-19— a level that seems to discount years of growth and strong market positioning. While the stock may yet drift lower, a rebound and renewed support confirmation at this level could present an attractive buying opportunity for long-term investors. Something unusual is happening inside a 40-person crypto research firm.
They're helping 8,000+ ordinary people pull consistent profits from crypto — not through luck or timing, but through a systematic approach with a documented 93% win rate. Claim Your Free Trade Setup → In the meantime, however, investors shouldn't get ahead of themselves. Headwinds from institutional investors, short-sellers and analysts may well drive shares toward $135—or below—before the sell-off runs its course. Sell-Side Forces Are Aligned Against Lululemon's Retail Investors The data tracked by MarketBeat show that 29 analysts rate the stock a Moderate Buy on average. Although overall sentiment has remained stable over the past year, the consensus price target has moved sharply lower. Once implying more than 50% upside as of early September, the consensus target has declined by over 40% in the last 12 months, now hovering near the $150 low-end mark. That downward trajectory is unlikely to reverse soon, and a further cut could arrive before the end of calendar Q3. Institutional investors and short-sellers have both been net sellers. Institutions were net buyers in Q1 and Q2 but turned to net selling in Q3—a trend that may accelerate following the company's reduced guidance. With institutions holding roughly 85% of outstanding shares, their activity represents a significant headwind. 
Short interest, which dipped early in the year, has risen again since mid-August, when it stood at about 6.7%. It could continue climbing until the company delivers more favorable results. Looking at the chart, Lululemon's technical setup foreshadowed a significant move. Shares broke below a long-term support zone and consolidated in a bearish formation before the Q2 release. By extrapolating the size of prior declines, analysts had projected a drop ranging from about 37% on the conservative end to roughly 50% in a more severe scenario—potentially placing LULU in the $126–$80 range by early 2026. Notably, those levels sit near the top of the 2018 trading range, which served as the launch pad for the last six years of stock performance. Lululemon's Shares Are Falling on Weak Guidance Lululemon didn't report a disastrous quarter—revenue grew by 6.8%, and earnings exceeded expectations. However, weakness in the U.S. segment and a reduction in Q3 and full-year guidance overshadowed any upside. The company still forecasts year-over-year growth but has trimmed its comparable-sales outlook to about 5%, below consensus, and warned that earnings will be impacted more severely. Management now expects tariffs and the end of de minimis shipping to shave roughly 1,200 basis points off its earnings outlook—and the ultimate impact could be even greater. Looking ahead, the key question is whether Lululemon can weather these challenges until consumer trends shift, or if a rival will swoop in to claim market share. On Holdings (NYSE: ONON) is certainly in contention.
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