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Lululemon Share Price Has Plenty of Room Left to Fall
Written by Thomas Hughes. Published 9/5/2025.
Key Points
- Lululemon's stock price decline isn't over yet, but the bottom is in sight and will likely be reached by early 2026.
- Bearish forces aligned against retail traders in the second half of 2025 and are strengthening.
- A move to historical lows, aligning with 2018's move to new highs, is possible.
After years of underperformance, Lululemon (NASDAQ: LULU) shares appear to be nearing the end of their downtrend. The Q2 release triggered a significant sell-off, sending the stock toward long-term lows and ultra-deep value territory. Trading near $165, LULU sits at a critical support level first established during the height of COVID-19 fears—a price point that arguably already discounts years of growth and market positioning.
While there is still room for the shares to fall further, a rebound and reaffirmation of support at this level would present a compelling buying opportunity for long-term investors.
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That said, investors should temper expectations in the near term. Institutional investors, short-sellers and sell-side analysts are aligned against Lululemon, and their combined pressure could push the stock toward $135 or lower before the sell-off runs its course.
Sell-Side Forces Are Aligned Against Lululemon's Retail Investors
MarketBeat data shows 29 analysts currently rate LULU at a consensus of Moderate Buy. While this sentiment has remained stable over the past 12 months, the consensus price target has steadily declined—now implying roughly 50% upside, down over 40% from a year ago, with recent revisions pushing the low end closer to $150.
Further downward revisions are likely before the end of Q3 as sell-side analysts adjust estimates to reflect weaker guidance.
On the institutional front, investors own about 85% of outstanding shares. Although they were net buyers in Q1 and Q2, sequential data show a shift to net selling in Q3. With lowered guidance in hand, institutions may accelerate selling, creating a significant headwind for the stock.
Short-sellers, who had been covering early in the year, resumed increasing their positions in the second half. Short interest was about 6.7% in mid-August and likely rose further after the Q2 results. It may continue climbing until the company delivers more encouraging news.
That catalyst could come with Q3 or Q4 results, but until then, market sentiment may remain sour.
Lululemon's technical setup also hinted at a major move. The stock broke below a long-term support level and consolidated bearishly ahead of Q2, suggesting a potential decline of up to 37%—to the $120–$126 range—by early 2026. That level aligns with the top of the 2018 trading range, which served as the launch pad for the past six years of gains.
Lululemon's Stock Is Falling Because the Guidance Is Weak
Lululemon did not report a disastrous quarter—revenue grew 6.8% and earnings outperformed consensus—but U.S. segment weakness and reduced guidance for Q3 and the full-year offset those positives.
The company still expects comparable sales growth, but lowered its target to about 5%—below consensus—and warned that tariffs and the end of de minimis shipping will dent earnings by 1,200 basis points, or possibly more.
The key question is whether Lululemon can weather these headwinds until consumer trends improve, or if a rival such as On Holdings (NYSE: ONON) swoops in to capture market share.
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