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Additional Reading from MarketBeat Media Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Author: Leo Miller. Article Published: 1/20/2026. 
Key Takeaways - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines again in 2026. Shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — the stock's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have taken a severe hit as COVID-19's relevance has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock remains down more than 90% from its all-time high, even after the recent bounce. A growing number of investors are paying attention to developments around private space companies and potential future public listings.
In a recent briefing, one research publisher outlines how some investors are seeking early exposure to the space economy through publicly traded assets — without waiting for a formal IPO. The presentation walks through the structure, risks, and mechanics behind this approach for those who want to understand how it works. Read the full sponsor briefing here With the stock so deeply depressed and the pharma company recently raising its outlook, is there a path for Moderna to regain momentum? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The recent pop in Moderna shares followed the company's updated revenue guidance and improved cost projections. For 2025, management now expects about $1.9 billion in revenue — roughly $100 million above its prior midpoint guidance — and forecasts operating expenses about $200 million below earlier estimates. That would put the firm's non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 at roughly $5 billion to $5.2 billion, about $2 billion lower than the prior year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs of about $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion by 2027. Nearly all of Moderna's current sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million was from COVID vaccines. That compares with the company's peak quarterly revenue of $7.2 billion in late 2021. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had completed the primary COVID-19 vaccine series, leaving a much smaller pool of potential vaccine recipients. That limited addressable market makes it difficult for Moderna to return to sustained growth from COVID vaccines alone. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeat booster demand among high-risk individuals and seniors. The company has strategic agreements with the governments of Canada, the U.K., and Australia, and 2026 will be the first full year to benefit from those partnerships. Moderna expects about $200 million in Q1 2026 sales from the U.K. deal, suggesting that targeting high-risk groups and government contracts could provide a steadier revenue base. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes a seasonal-vaccine strategy, combined with cost cuts, can deliver breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine; that candidate could be approved in 2026 and start generating meaningful revenue in 2027. Approval and commercialization of a second seasonal product would be an important catalyst. However, seasonal vaccines alone are unlikely to provide durable, long-term growth. To reestablish investor enthusiasm, Moderna will probably need success outside of seasonal markets — notably in oncology or rare diseases, where higher-value drugs can drive sustained revenue. The company has several candidates with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most important is its personalized cancer medicine, intismeran: Moderna expects five-year Phase 2 follow-up data in early 2026, with Phase 3 results possible in late 2026. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock. Overall, significant uncertainty still surrounds Moderna's outlook. It is not guaranteed that COVID-19 vaccine sales have bottomed, and the company's long-term prospects hinge on approvals in new clinical areas where it currently has no marketed products. Separately, conservative government policy toward mRNA investments — including actions that wound down certain BARDA mRNA development efforts — adds another layer of risk for future programs. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target sits near $30, implying more than 25% downside from current levels. A sustained stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand — combined with clear clinical progress outside of seasonal vaccines — would be the key prerequisites for becoming more bullish on its long-term prospects.
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