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Kohl's Stock Rebound Faces a Showdown With Short Sellers
Written by Thomas Hughes. Published 9/2/2025.
Key Points
- Kohl's is not out of the weeds but is on track to complete a turnaround and return to growth.
- Earnings quality is improving, setting the company up for a leveraged earnings rebound.
- Institutional and analyst trends provide solid support, while short-sellers have ample reason to fear volatility.
Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) stock appears to have bottomed, but risk-averse income investors should still proceed with caution. After tumbling to its April lows, the shares have mounted an impressive rebound; however, volatility is likely to persist for the rest of the year. While the company's operational turnaround is gaining traction and the recently reduced dividend looks sustainable, uncertainties remain, and short interest continues to pose a risk.
Despite a 31% sequential decline in short interest in early August, it still stands at about 32% of the float, posing a headwind into Q3 and potentially Q4. That level of bearish positioning can exacerbate price swings, even as operational improvements bolster the longer-term outlook.
Short Sellers, Analyst Sentiment, and Institutional Buying Fuel Volatility
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The Q2 earnings release and updated guidance triggered a notable rally, aided in part by short-covering. Yet technical charts reveal strong resistance at levels tied to 2024's downtrend and the COVID-19 lows of 2020, likely capping near-term gains. Overcoming this barrier will require another catalyst for a more sustainable advance.
Institutional activity offers one potential upside. MarketBeat data show that although institutions were net sellers in Q1, they flipped to buy at roughly a 2-to-1 ratio over sellers in Q2 and the first half of Q3. With institutions holding nearly all outstanding shares, continued buying could squeeze out remaining short sellers.
Analysts have also turned more positive. Following the Q2 update, there were ten upward revisions—the first such changes in two quarters—including several price-target increases and upgrades. This shift lifted the consensus target by 25% overnight and helped to put in a bottom near current levels. However, most of the new targets assume valuations below key resistance, so further upside may await additional bullish news.
Kohl's Mixed Results: Sales Decline Offset by Improved Earnings
Kohl's revenue fell 5.1% year-over-year, lagging peers, as comparable sales declined by 4.2%, partly due to heavier markdowns and promotions aimed at reducing excess inventory. Those efforts, combined with operational efficiencies, produced a better-than-expected bottom line and healthy cash flow, enabling the company to maintain balance-sheet strength while covering its dividend.
The dividend now yields about 3.3% as of early September, with a payout ratio of 55% following the recent cut—levels that should improve as earnings recover. Balance-sheet highlights include lower cash and inventory levels, reduced current debt and total liabilities, and a 2.6% increase in shareholder equity. Long-term debt remains modest at under 0.5× equity and approximately 0.5× inventory, supporting the ongoing turnaround.
The next catalyst will be Kohl's Q3 earnings report, scheduled for late November. Management has issued favorable guidance, expecting revenue and earnings to exceed consensus estimates. If the company sustains its operational momentum, it could outpace guidance and return to growth before year-end, especially as off-price peers like TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) and Ross Stores (NASDAQ: ROST) report positive trends in off-price merchandise.
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