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Join Jeffry for “30 Minutes of Awesome,” LIVE at 5 p.m. ET TODAY — bring your ticker for him to analyze and let’s have some fun! Are We Ignoring the Tsunami? Recognizing the Major Warning Signs in Today's Market Are we riding the waves higher and ignoring a potential tsunami that could crush the market? Potentially, the U.S. has been in a recession for a few years now. Let me explain… ![]() Back in the summer of 2021, I pointed out that we had two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, which traditionally signals a recession. But instead of acknowledging it, they adjusted the numbers to avoid that label. This concerns me deeply, as I’ve been talking about the possibility of staring down a depression. The signs are piling up, and it really scares me. I came across an article that summarized these concerns well. An analyst I respect, Avi Gilbert — a guy who doesn’t throw out trades but provides solid analysis — recently wrote a piece comparing the current market to late 2019 and early 2020. Back then, we kept grinding higher despite poor chart patterns. The same thing is happening now. Even though we’re hitting new highs, the chart patterns don’t look good. Remember early 2020? The market needed that pullback, and I was already positioned for a drop before the COVID-19 story became the dominant narrative. I was ready for a downturn because of the chart patterns, not because of the news. That’s why some of my trades didn’t make sense to others — they didn’t see what I saw in the charts. Only a third of what I made during the COVID drop was directly related to the pandemic… The rest was due to my positioning based on market signals. Trading the VIX, for instance, paid off because the market drop looked imminent to me regardless of the cause. This brings me to a crucial piece of trading wisdom from Jesse Livermore, one of the pioneers of day trading from about 100 years ago. He never made the big money by being right... He did it through being patient when he was right that made him rich. I’ve been very patient with crypto, despite the rocky events of the past week. You have to give your trades enough rope, but also know when you’re wrong. Patience in trading is vital, but so is recognizing and admitting mistakes quickly. Let's look at some economic indicators. The nonfarm payrolls keep rising, but employment levels have leveled off. This discrepancy is concerning. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, new manufacturing orders are declining when adjusted for inflation, despite claims of big order volumes. Similarly, retail sales are nominally high, but the inflation-adjusted figures show a decline. These are red flags. The unemployment numbers also don’t paint a complete picture, as they don’t account for homeless people. And let's talk about the Consumer Price Index inflation data... The official CPI shows lower inflation, but if we use the pre-1983 methodology — before they started removing essential expenses — we’d see a much higher inflation rate, almost 20% at its peak. This discrepancy is BIG because many international forex traders watch U.S. food prices as an indicator of real inflation and economic health. Food prices have increased dramatically, by 30% to 50% percent in recent years. Let me share a personal anecdote... My wife Kimberly and I took a friend to a favorite burger spot, Abridged Beer Company, on a Saturday night. It was a cool evening, perfect weather. And here we are! ![]() But aside from our big table, the place was almost empty, which was shocking. Typically, there’s a wait for tables, but not this time. People just can’t afford to go out anymore. This is scary stuff — it feels like the economy is about to break. This is why we need to be extremely cautious. The market continues to climb, but the underlying indicators suggest trouble ahead. Be ready to exit positions when the market signals a downturn. It's not about being right all the time… It’s about being prepared and knowing when to act. Finally, stay vigilant. The signs are there, and they’re concerning. Don’t get caught off guard. Keep an eye on the economic indicators, and be ready to make moves when necessary. Remember, it’s your money — no one cares about it more than you do. Stay safe and be careful out there. Be sure to join me LIVE for “30 Minutes of Awesome,” starting now! Jeffry Turnmire Jeffry Turnmire Trading Be sure to join me live at 9:15 a.m. ET each weekday for “Morning Monster,” my market-open livestream on YouTube, and again at 5 p.m. ET on Tuesdays for “30 Minutes of Awesome” — bring your ticker and I’ll analyze it in real time! Please hit that Subscribe button on my YouTube page! *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is an inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. Wall Street was busy making behind the scenes moves, and almost no one is talking about it… No one except Graham Lindman! Wall Street is busy injecting cash infusions into stocks as fast as they can just before the closing bell each day… And that’s good news for ordinary folks… Because it opens the door for targeting what could be double- and triple-digit moves on stocks in just 24 hours. Just like anyone could have done with Wells Fargo… Back in April, Wells Fargo fell flat on its earnings report and the stock was stuck in the mud for WEEKS! ![]() A nice 85% gain 24 hours later! Granted, there were smaller wins and those that did not work out and Graham cannot promise future profits or shield against losses… But he does have his eye on three stocks… and it looks like Wall Street could be injecting them with cash infusions right now. If you’d like to see the names of these stocks as well as how Graham’s leveraging them during these cash infusions... ![]() Want to get a link to TradingPub content, trade ideas, real-time market analysis and educational tidbits? We have you covered! Telegram is an entirely free messaging app and getting access is as easy as 1… 2… 3… 1. Download Telegram on your mobile device (Before you can add Telegram to your desktop computer, you must download the application on your phone and create your account: To download to your iPhone, click here. To download to your Android device, click here. After the download is complete, please create an account. NOTE: You can manage your privacy settings by clicking “Settings,” and then “Privacy & Security.” 2. Download Telegram on your desktop: Once you’ve downloaded Telegram onto your mobile device and created your personal account, you can download it onto your desktop computer. To download onto your PC, click here. To download onto your MacOS, click here. 3. Then add our channels by clicking these links!
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