Remember, you are not the crazy ones. For those of you who’ve been thinking about coming aboard The Bulwark, now’s the time.
Let’s start with this morning’s agita:
Happy Monday. There’s no way to gloss over this. The polls are packed with ominous news for Team Biden:
Alarming. But perhaps the alarm should be mixed with some skepticism and a dollop of hope.
Another sliver of good news: “Trump Indictments Haven’t Sunk His Campaign, but a Conviction Might.”
(FYI: Donald Trump to testify in New York fraud case that threatens his business —Reuters.) ** Perhaps there is a pony buried in there. But I regret to the tell you this (because I know you are tired of hearing that Biden is old), but his age really does seem to be an issue. So, there was a good deal of angst in the ranks yesterday. Obama guru and Democratic savant David Axelrod hinted that it was perhaps time for Joe to go.
My colleague, Bill Kristol had a similar reaction.
The Atlantic’s David Frum, on the other hand, argued that we should put the numbers in perspective. As he notes, this sort of thing has happened before. Who, after all, can forget this from November 2011:
Frum argues that the pre-election polling for both Obama and Biden “tells us less about the world” and “more about the inherent problems of managing the Democratic coalition, which is always more fractious and fissile that the (smaller) Republican coalition.” What really matters in 2024This seems like a good moment to be clear about the priorities of 2024. Ultimately, 2024 is not about re-electing Joe Biden. It is about the urgent necessity of stopping the return of Donald J. Trump to the presidency. The question is how. There shouldn’t be any doubt what a second term would mean for the rule of law of liberal constitutional democracy.
Nota bene: The plans have already been drafted. They are specific. They name names. You have been warned. ** Heart attack vs. cancerStopping Trump requires an anti-Trump coalition of the center-right and center-left. But that fragile alliance is under tremendous strain these days. And the threat to democracy extends far beyond the Orange Man to the wider fetish of Trumpism and the rise of illiberalism on both edges of the political spectrum. Liberal democracy faces a two-front assault. At the same time that the MAGA right revels in its illiberalism, the progressive movement, Jonathan Rauch and Peter Wehner wrote last year, “is increasingly under the sway of a totalistic, unfalsifiable and revolutionary ideology that rejects fundamental liberal values like pluralism and free inquiry. And conservatives aren’t hallucinating about its influence.” But this is where we have to distinguish the heart attack from the cancer. And right now, the threat of a MAGA restoration is the heart attack. It is the immediate, red-light-flashing, firebell-in-the-night crisis of the moment. So, this would be a good time to put away the wish-casting and the indulgence in denial, contempt, and partisan myopia, because the stakes are simply too high. I suspect you know what I’m talking about. Denialism:Let’s put this bluntly. Donald Trump could win next year. Don’t expect the trials to save us. The GOP will rally around him, even if he is a convicted felon. You can be shocked. But don’t be surprised. This also means that Joe Biden could lose. Despite his vulnerabilities, though, many Democrats (and the pundits who love them) have decided that they absolutely don’t want to hear about Biden’s age/inflation/Hunter’s sleaze/crime/the border. And they are betting the future of liberal constitutional democracy that none of this will matter. But voters in the real world apparently do care. And that seems to be a problem, especially when Joe Biden is all that stands between us and a revanchist Trump 2.0 presidency. So, Biden’s cheerleaders and fluffers — the ones who bitterly denounce any Democrat who even suggests that the party might possibly want to think about considering an alternative to the incumbent — miss the point, because the actual point is defeating Trump and defending democracy. Maybe Biden is the best man to do that. Maybe the Democrats have no one else who could. Maybe he is the reincarnation of Harry Truman. But maybe he’s not; and it’s counterproductive to prop him up if it turns out that he is not, in fact, a bulwark against authoritarianism. The polls also suggest that Democrats no longer have the luxury of ignoring critics like Ruy Teixeira, who has been trying to explain to Democrats why they are losing ground with working class and minority voters. So maybe listen to Ruy? Contempt:It’s tempting to look at the poll numbers and conclude that America has simply lost its mind. And perhaps it has. But there is also a danger in embracing the politics of disdain. If you regard your fellow Americans as too stupid, racist, or befuddled to be trusted with self-governance, are you really defending democracy? Or have you drifted toward becoming what you oppose? Partisan myopia:If you are expecting Republicans to suddenly become Democrats — or conservative swing voters to embrace the progressive agenda — then you are stalking unicorns. Centrist swing voters are unlikely to jump from one tribalism to another. Any campaign to defeat Trump will have to include voters who are willing to cross the lines to vote for the alternative, but don’t expect them to swallow the whole enchilada. This brings us back to the fragile anti-Trump coalition. Even though the last few years have tended to paper over the incongruities and conflicts in a group that ranges from AOC to Liz Cheney (!), recent events remind us that it is not held together by ideological agreement. The splits over Israel and Hamas have exposed deep fissures in the coalition, and those may widen. So, this is a critical time to refocus on what matters. This coalition needs to be held together by a shared alarm over the danger of a Trumpian restoration. Nothing else matters. We are not the crazy ones. We are the ragged, thin line that is the last best hope of holding back the insanity. So be afraid. But don’t despair. Trump Keeps Telling UsOn our weekend podcast, Tim Miller joined me: Trump is glorifying insurrectionist prisoners, Bannon-world is using Confederate code words about assassination, and Republicans and a lot of the media are just pretending this radicalizing talk isn’t happening. Plus, Mike Johnson’s thoughts on dinosaurs and gay people
You can listen to the whole thing here. Or watch us on Youtube:  BONUS SHOT:  Quick Hits1. Hamas, Israel, and the Dark Power of VengeanceWill Selber in today’s Bulwark:
2. Ohio Abortion Vote a Test Case for 2024Daniel McGraw in this morning’s Bulwark:
3. Republicans Get Angry When You Do the Right Thing
Cheap Shots
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