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Wednesday's Bonus Content Starwood Shares Have Struggled, but Catalysts Could Signal a TurnAuthor: Jennifer Ryan Woods. Article Posted: 3/31/2026. 
Key Points - Starwood Property Trust has been under pressure from rising interest rates and company-specific challenges, with the stock down more than 30% over the past five years and lagging its peers over the last year.
- Inconsistent earnings, repeated revenue misses, and uneven dividend coverage have weighed on investor sentiment, even as the company has maintained its high dividend payout.
- Recent developments, including a stronger earnings report, improving commentary around dividend coverage, and a newly authorized share buyback, could help shift sentiment if the company delivers more consistent results.
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Over the last several years, the higher interest rate environment has been a persistent headwind for commercial real estate, and Starwood Property Trust (NYSE: STWD) has been no exception. The real estate investment trust (REIT) — which specializes in originating, acquiring, and managing commercial mortgage loans and other real estate-related investments — has seen its stock trend meaningfully lower over the past five years. The past year has been particularly challenging, driven by disappointing revenue, declines in book value per share (BVPS), and several quarters in which earnings failed to cover the dividend. However, the tide may be turning: a mix of recent developments could signal near-term upside. Pandemic Pressure Followed by Rising Rates Pressured Shares Starwood's difficulties began with the COVID-19 pandemic, when shares plunged in early 2020 from around $26 to below $10 as mortgage REITs faced liquidity concerns and deep uncertainty across commercial real estate markets. Shares recovered to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2021 as investor confidence returned, but new headwinds emerged soon after. When rates started rising in March 2022, property values declined and lending margins tightened, again pressuring commercial mortgage REITs. The impact on STWD has been significant: shares are down more than 30% over the past five years. Peers were hit as well — Ares Commercial Real Estate (NYSE: ACRE), Blackstone Mortgage Trust (NYSE: BXMT), and Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (NYSE: ARI) fell roughly 65%, 40%, and 27%, respectively, over the same period. Over the last year, Starwood underperformed the group. The stock has declined about 12% over the past 12 months, and at a recent trading price near $17.37 it has been flirting with the 52-week low set in April 2025. Starwood has also lagged the broader REIT industry, which is down roughly 12% over the same period, and trailed many of its closest peers. In the past year, Ares shares gained about 4.75%, Blackstone Mortgage Trust is down roughly 3.65%, and Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is up more than 10%. Inconsistent Earnings and Dividend Coverage Weigh on Sentiment One persistent issue for Starwood has been inconsistent results. While earnings per share (EPS) beat expectations in four of the last six quarters, revenue missed in five of those six quarters. The company has also reported negative net interest income in certain quarters, which has weighed on sentiment. Starwood's dividend has added to investor uncertainty. For more than a decade, the REIT has paid a quarterly dividend of $0.48 per share, which currently yields about 11.26%. However, over the past four quarters earnings did not fully cover that payout, producing a payout ratio near 165% — a level that is difficult to sustain. Against the still-challenging higher-rate backdrop, the combination of mixed earnings and uneven dividend coverage made investors cautious. But several recent developments could help restore confidence: better-than-expected revenue, management's positive commentary about improving dividend coverage, and a newly authorized share repurchase program. Stronger Results and a Potential Buyback Could Shift Sentiment In Starwood's Q4 2025 earnings report, released Feb. 25, the REIT reported EPS of $0.42, beating analyst estimates by $0.01. Revenue of $492.95 million came in roughly $23 million above estimates, the first positive revenue surprise after several consecutive misses. Starwood also highlighted a stronger liquidity position, noting it had executed $4.4 billion in capital raises and ended the year with $1.4 billion in cash and available liquidity. While EPS did not cover the $0.48 quarterly dividend, company management said on the earnings call that it expects dividend coverage to improve steadily through the year. Still, continued declines in BVPS remain a concern. After the earnings release, the board authorized the repurchase of up to $400 million of outstanding common stock and convertible notes over the next 12 months using existing cash. A buyback that could represent up to about 6% of shares outstanding has the potential to meaningfully boost EPS and support the stock if executed. Wall Street Is Waiting for Clearer Signs of Improvement Market reaction to the Q4 report and buyback authorization was mixed. Shares rose roughly 2% on above-average volume, though two analysts lowered their price targets despite keeping Outperform ratings. Currently, four analysts rate Starwood a Hold and three rate it a Buy. The average 12-month price target implies nearly 16% upside from current levels. Wall Street may remain cautious for now, but the outlook could turn more positive if Starwood delivers another quarter of strong earnings and revenue, demonstrates improving dividend coverage, and begins repurchasing shares under the new authorization. |