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This Week's Bonus News MCD and TXRH: 2 Low-Risk Restaurant Stocks With UpsideAuthor: Dan Schmidt. Publication Date: 2/17/2026. 
Key Points - The restaurant industry has become a key indicator for the K-shaped economy.
- Winners and losers are beginning to emerge based on the perceived value they offer to both higher-end and lower-end customers.
- McDonald's and Texas Roadhouse continue to grow comps despite the tough environment thanks to their value-oriented focus that keeps diners coming back.
- Special Report: [Sponsorship-Ad-6-Format3]
The restaurant sector has often been at the forefront of the debate over a K-shaped economy. While consumer sentiment continues to diverge from actual consumer behavior (especially in the retail sector), the food-service industry reveals those divergent trends quickly. The upper end of the 'K' still splurges, while more cost-conscious consumers at the bottom hunt for value to stretch their dollars. In that environment, two restaurant chains are standing out for different reasons. The numbers speak for themselves: McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) and Texas Roadhouse Inc. (NASDAQ: TXRH) continue to grow comparable sales and gain share from competitors. Below, we explain why each has performed well in a challenging dining environment and why their stocks may be positioned to outperform the restaurant industry this year. McDonald's Continues to Dominate the Fast-Food Market Recent earnings from McDonald’s and Wendy’s Co. (NASDAQ: WEN) highlighted how fast-food players are separating themselves. McDonald’s reported Q4 2025 results last week, beating both EPS and revenue expectations and delivering 9.7% year-over-year sales growth. Global same-store sales rose 5.7% year over year, including a 6.8% increase in the United States. By contrast, Wendy’s reported Q4 2025 results showing a 5.5% revenue decline and an 11.3% drop in U.S. same-store sales. How has McDonald’s been able to grow U.S. sales at nearly a 7% clip while other quick-service restaurants struggle? The answer is value. McDonald’s projects operating margins above 40% in 2026, which gives it flexibility to pursue a sustained Value Leadership strategy. Unlike the limited-time promotions run by some competitors, McDonald’s Value Menu 2.0 is a permanent fixture. Extra Value Meals were reintroduced last September, and earlier this year the company launched the McValue platform, featuring $5 Meal Deals and BOGO offers for $1. The Grinch Meal holiday promotion produced the largest single-day sales figure in the company’s history. McDonald’s digital ecosystem also drives repeat visits: the app has roughly 200 million active users. A marketing focus on chicken items such as the McCrispy helps offset beef-price inflation, and the company plans to open another 2,600 restaurants this year while some competitors close underperforming locations. 
Shares of MCD began breaking out well before last week’s earnings. A bullish crossover in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator coincided with the stock rising above both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), signaling strong upward momentum. If low-income consumers continue to trade down in search of value, McDonald’s looks well positioned to sustain sales growth, supported by both fundamental and technical catalysts in 2026. Texas Roadhouse Grows Share Despite Commodity Headwinds Rising beef prices have cast a shadow over Texas Roadhouse for much of the past year. Beef costs have climbed faster than inflation since the COVID-19 pandemic, and the surge over the last two years has rattled many restaurant operators and investors. The increase has been driven in part by cattle shortages, which pushed live cow and steer prices to record levels—a trend that could persist through 2027. Despite that headwind, Texas Roadhouse continues to outpace many casual-dining rivals on same-store sales. The company’s barbell strategy—offering strong value options alongside premium steaks and upcharge items—lets it appeal to cost-conscious diners while still attracting guests willing to spend more. In its Q3 2025 report, Texas Roadhouse posted comps of 6.1% and nearly 13% year-over-year revenue growth despite a 224-basis-point increase in food-and-beverage costs. Management raised menu prices by only 1.7%, deliberately sacrificing some margin to preserve value for customers. Customer experience is central to Texas Roadhouse’s performance. Traffic durability matters for fast-casual chains that rely on repeat business. Large portions, speedy service, efficient digital kitchens and plenty of add-ons create the feel of a special night out without a premium price—so customers often say the meal is “worth it” for date nights and family dinners. 
TXRH’s performance so far this year suggests the doldrums of 2025 may be fading. The stock rose for 11 consecutive days to start 2026, breaking through a long-standing 200-day SMA resistance. After a consolidation period that brought the Relative Strength Index (RSI) back to more neutral levels and narrowed the gap between the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, the stock has resumed an upward posture. With a Golden Cross appearing imminent, the 50-day SMA could become a reliable support for a new rally. That level has already held once, and the share price is now approaching the 50-day moving average again—potentially an attractive entry opportunity for new investors. A near-term catalyst: Texas Roadhouse will report Q4 2025 results after the market close on Feb. 19.
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