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Tesla's 2026 May Hinge on a March 9 Outcome
Author: Sam Quirke. Article Posted: 3/4/2026.
Key Points
- Tesla shares are once again testing critical support near $390, with the bulls forced to defend it again.
- After two extensions, Tesla must deliver key data to regulators by March 9, putting its autonomy narrative under direct scrutiny.
- With analysts growing more cautious and the stock struggling to gain momentum, this deadline could determine whether 2026 becomes a reset or breakdown year.
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Shares of Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) are trading around $390—back at the bottom of a multi-month range after repeatedly failing to build on January's earnings beat. The company topped headline expectations, but the stock couldn't sustain upside momentum. Since then, sellers have steadily pushed it toward this support level, which has held twice in recent months.
The repeated tests suggest bullish conviction could be thinning. Another big test for Tesla approaches on March 9, and it could matter far more than price action in determining whether the stock sees upside in 2026.
Why the March 9 Deadline Matters
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Add yourself to the distribution list here.Tesla must provide the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) with detailed data on its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, following an investigation into traffic violations and system performance. The company already received two extensions on its original mid-January deadline, likely testing the NHTSA's patience. That makes next week's submission feel less like routine paperwork and more like a do-or-die compliance moment.
While this is not a final ruling or enforcement action, optics matter. Delivering comprehensive, reassuring data could ease regulatory pressure and reinforce Tesla's claim that its autonomy roadmap remains intact. Failing to satisfy regulators, however, risks escalating scrutiny and prolonging uncertainty around one of the company's most important strategic pillars.
For a company whose valuation increasingly hinges on autonomy rather than vehicle volume, that distinction matters. Investors aren't just betting on Tesla's electric vehicle deliveries; they're betting on Full Self-Driving, robotaxis and the broader artificial intelligence (AI) narrative Elon Musk has framed as Tesla's future.
Autonomy Drives the Multiple
As we've recently highlighted, Tesla's valuation now reflects far more than car sales. The company's shift toward an "Amazing Abundance" vision, centered on robotics and AI, has encouraged investors to look beyond near-term softness in deliveries and margin pressure.
That also creates fragility. If autonomy progress appears stalled or vulnerable to regulatory setbacks, the premium multiple becomes harder to justify—especially when the stock is already under pressure. At roughly $390, Tesla is still down nearly 20% from December's all-time high, and investors are looking for tangible execution to back up the company's ambition.
That tension—and at times skepticism—appears in recent analyst commentary. Barclays recently assigned a Neutral rating, while BNP Paribas this week reiterated a Sell-equivalent stance with a $280 price target, implying roughly 30% downside.
Those calls are compounded by similarly bearish targets from Phillip Securities ($215 last month) and JPMorgan ($145 in January). With skeptics growing louder, the March 9 deadline feels less symbolic and more like a live test of whether Tesla can preserve credibility at a pivotal moment.
The Bears Are Growing Louder
The technical backdrop adds to the pressure. Tesla has been losing ground since before Christmas, posting a string of lower highs. Each bounce is shallower, and each test of $390 weakens the bulls' resolve.
Deliveries are falling, competition in the EV space is intensifying, and expectations around Tesla's autonomy potential may be running ahead of execution. In that context, another regulatory cloud would strengthen the case that the stock's premium valuation is due for a reset.
Conversely, a clean regulatory outcome that removes uncertainty could quickly flip the narrative. Tesla has shown in the past that when a major overhang clears, sentiment can turn rapidly and force short sellers to cover.
The $390 Line in the Sand
If Tesla navigates next week's March 9 deadline without triggering deeper concerns, it could open the door to a move back toward the upper end of the recent range and potentially re-ignite the broader uptrend.
If the outcome disappoints, however, regulatory uncertainty combined with a third failed support test could tip the balance decisively toward the bears. In that scenario, the argument that Tesla needs near-perfect execution to justify its premium would gain serious traction. Either way, next week will likely determine whether Tesla stabilizes here or slides into a steeper downtrend.
Wall Street Loves FIGS—Why Do Price Targets Predict Pullback?
Author: Jennifer Ryan Woods. Article Posted: 3/4/2026.
Key Points
- FIGS stock has surged nearly 260% over the past year, hitting a price not seen since shortly after its 2021 IPO.
- Q4 revenue topped $200 million—the company's best quarter ever—with scrubwear sales up 35% and international sales jumping 55%.
- Despite the rally and bullish analyst commentary, the consensus price target sits almost 30% below current levels.
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After a stunning plunge following its 2021 IPO, medical and lifestyle apparel company FIGS, Inc. (NYSE: FIGS) has roared back to life and is trading at a price it hasn't seen in nearly four years. The stock, now above $17, has surged almost 260% over the past year, including a 58% spike in the last month alone.
The rally has been driven by strong earnings and a wave of bullish analyst commentary. Yet despite the momentum, the consensus 12-month price target is just $12.25—roughly 30% below the current level. That gap raises a key question: how much of FIGS' recovery rests on fundamentals versus momentum? A look at the company's history and recent results provides some clues. Early investors saw quick gains after the May 2021 IPO, which priced at $22 and climbed to about $50 within a month.
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Add yourself to the distribution list here.Demand for medical apparel surged during the COVID-19 pandemic. As the pandemic eased, shares reversed sharply and traded below $8 within a year. For the next several years FIGS largely moved in the single digits, and after dipping below $4 in April 2025, the stock began another upward move—this time toward the highs it's reaching now.
Earnings Momentum Sparks Rally
Steady gains after positive Q1 and Q2 2025 earnings accelerated following the Q3 2025 results released on Nov. 6. That report showed stronger-than-expected revenue growth, solid demand across core categories and healthy margins despite tariff pressures.
FIGS raised its full-year guidance for net revenue and adjusted EBITDA margins, and Wall Street reacted. The stock climbed more than 30% over the next week and Zacks Research upgraded the name to Strong Buy from Hold.
The momentum continued after the Q4 2025 earnings report released on Feb. 26. The company reported a 33% year-over-year increase in revenue—their best quarterly revenue yet—with sales topping $200 million. In the earnings call, management highlighted strength across the business, including growth in the active customer base and higher average order values, and noted the company even outfitted Team USA's medical team during the Winter Olympics.
Scrubwear, FIGS' core segment that accounts for more than three-quarters of net revenue, grew 35%. International sales rose 55%, further boosting results. The fourth quarter capped a strong year: net revenue increased 14% year-over-year to a record $630 million. Despite tariff-related pressure on gross margins, profitability held up—full-year adjusted EBITDA margin beat targets by more than 200 basis points.
Analysts Applaud Earnings and Outlook
FIGS issued an upbeat outlook, expecting continued demand supported in part by growth in healthcare jobs. The company plans expansion into new international markets, will prioritize growth opportunities across its businesses and intends to continue its stock buyback program.
For fiscal 2026, FIGS expects net revenue to grow 10% to 12%, with improved profitability targets.
Analysts responded with a string of positive notes after the earnings release. Barclays upgraded to Strong Buy from Hold; KeyCorp moved to Overweight from Sector Weight with a $17 price target; Goldman Sachs adjusted its rating to Hold from Strong Sell. BTIG reiterated Buy with a $15 target, and Telsey Advisory raised its target to $15 from $9.
FIGS Stock Pushes Past Price Targets
Strong results are the clear catalyst for FIGS' move to four-year highs. Shares began rising ahead of the Q4 report—jumping nearly 14% in the session before the release—and the rally intensified afterward. The stock surged 24% on the first trading day following the results and added another 10% the next day. As of March 4, the stock was trading above $17, more than double Morgan Stanley's $8 target issued in January and above KeyCorp's highest target of $17.
The gap between bullish analyst commentary and relatively low price targets suggests analysts appreciate the improving fundamentals but remain cautious on valuation. At current levels, FIGS trades at a price-to-earnings ratio near 90, implying much of the company's expected growth may already be priced in.
There are few publicly traded direct competitors to FIGS. By contrast, lululemon athletica inc. (NASDAQ: LULU), a dominant player in lifestyle apparel, trades at a P/E below 12. The takeaway: investors are rewarding FIGS for its turnaround, but skepticism remains over whether the stock can sustain this ascent or if a pullback could be ahead.
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