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Today's Bonus Story Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Written by Leo Miller. Date Posted: 1/20/2026. 
At a Glance - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines again in 2026. Shares climbed more than 17% on Jan. 13 — the company's largest single-day advance in over three years. Moderna shares have been severely hit as demand for COVID-19 vaccines has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock remains down more than 90% from its all-time high—even after the recent bounce. On September 14th, 2023, something big happened that didn't make the news. The price gap between London gold and Shanghai gold blew out to $120 an ounce. For years, that gap was a few dollars, maybe $5 or $10. A 20x jump in seconds isn't a glitch, it's the system breaking. Traders tried to buy gold in London to sell in Shanghai, but hit a wall. The London vaults were empty. Since that day, gold has hit 53 all-time highs. One stock is positioned to capture the bulk of this wealth transfer. See the full story on this opportunity now. With the stock in such a deep hole and the pharma company recently raising its outlook, is there a path for Moderna shares to recover? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The jump in Moderna stock followed the company's announcement of better-than-expected revenue guidance and improved cost-management expectations. Moderna said it expects $1.9 billion in revenue for 2025 — $100 million above its previously outlined midpoint guidance — and forecasted operating expenses roughly $200 million below its prior estimate. This would put non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 between $5 billion and $5.2 billion, about a $2 billion decline from the prior year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs of $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion by 2027. Almost all of Moderna's sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines — a steep drop from late 2021, when Moderna generated $7.2 billion in a single quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had received a complete primary COVID-19 vaccine series, leaving a much smaller pool of potential patients. That makes it difficult for Moderna to return to sustainable growth based solely on COVID treatments. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeat COVID-19 booster uptake among high-risk individuals and seniors. The company also has strategic partnerships with the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia; 2026 will be the first year Moderna sees the full-year benefit of those deals. Notably, in Q1 2026 the firm expects about $200 million in sales from the U.K. government. Targeting high-risk populations and expanding government contracts could help establish a steadier revenue base. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes its seasonal vaccine strategy, combined with cost reductions, can achieve breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase III results for a flu vaccine candidate; if approved in 2026, that product could begin generating meaningful revenue in 2027 and serve as a second seasonal offering. Securing approval would be an important catalyst for the company and is likely necessary for reaching the 2028 goal. However, seasonal vaccines alone probably won't deliver strong long-term growth. To reignite investor enthusiasm, Moderna will likely need success in non-seasonal categories such as oncology or rare disease treatments, where it currently has no approved products. The company has several candidates with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most significant is its personalized cancer medicine, intismeran; Moderna expects five-year Phase II data in early 2026, with potential Phase III data in late 2026. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock Overall, uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. It is far from certain that COVID-19 vaccine sales have bottomed, and the company's long-term prospects hinge on approvals in clinical areas where it currently lacks approved therapies. Additionally, recent policy moves — including efforts to wind down certain government investments in mRNA development — have increased concerns about future support and regulatory momentum. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target sits near $30, implying more than 25% downside from current levels. A clear stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand — and positive readouts from non-seasonal programs — would be important prerequisites for becoming more bullish on the company's long-term prospects.
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