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This Week's Exclusive Story MCD and TXRH: 2 Low-Risk Restaurant Stocks With UpsideBy Dan Schmidt. Published: 2/17/2026. 
What You Need to Know - The restaurant industry has become a key indicator for the K-shaped economy.
- Winners and losers are beginning to emerge based on the perceived value they offer to both higher-end and lower-end customers.
- McDonald's and Texas Roadhouse continue to grow comps despite the tough environment thanks to their value-oriented focus that keeps diners coming back.
The restaurant sector is often at the center of the debate around the K-shaped economy. While consumer sentiment can diverge from actual behavior (especially in the retail sector), the food service industry shows those divergent trends quickly. The upper end of the 'K' continues to indulge, while more cost-conscious consumers at the bottom are searching for greater value to stretch their dollars. In that environment, two restaurant operators are standing out for different reasons. The numbers speak for themselves: McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) and Texas Roadhouse Inc. (NASDAQ: TXRH) continue to grow comparable sales and gain share from competitors. Below we explain why both have thrived in a challenging dining market and why their stocks could outperform the restaurant industry this year. McDonald's Continues to Dominate the Fast Food Market In 1999, Sutter Hill Ventures made a bold bet on Nvidia before anyone had heard of it. Now, they're going all-in on Nvidia's hush-hush partner that's powering their new Blackwell chip. Discover the little-known company that's attracting massive investments from the visionaries behind Nvidia's 100,000% rise. Unlock the hidden key to AI's future. The recent earnings reports from McDonald’s and Wendy’s Co. (NASDAQ: WEN) underscored how fast-food players are separating themselves. McDonald’s reported Q4 2025 results last week, beating expectations on both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue, with 9.7% year-over-year (YOY) sales growth. Global same-store sales exceeded expectations with 5.7% YOY growth, including 6.8% in the United States. By contrast, Wendy’s reported a revenue decline of 5.5% YOY and an 11.3% drop in U.S. same-store sales in its Q4 2025 report. How has McDonald’s managed nearly 7% U.S. sales growth while other quick-service restaurants (QSRs) struggle? It comes down to value. The company projects operating margins above 40% in 2026, which enables it to pursue its Value Leadership strategy. Unlike the limited-time promotions used by some rivals, McDonald’s Value Menu 2.0 is a permanent program. Extra Value Meals were reintroduced last September, and earlier this year the company launched the McValue platform, which includes $5 Meal Deals and Buy One, Get One for $1 offers. The Grinch Meal holiday promotion produced the largest single-day sales figure in the company’s history. McDonald’s app, with roughly 200 million active users, helps drive repeat visits through offers and personalization. A marketing focus on chicken products, like the McCrispy, also lessens the impact of beef-price inflation. The company plans to open about 2,600 additional restaurants this year while some competitors, such as Wendy’s, are closing underperforming locations. 
The breakout in MCD shares began well before last week’s earnings release. A bullish crossover in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator coincided with the stock rising above the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), signaling upward momentum. If lower-income consumers continue trading down for value, McDonald’s is well-positioned to keep growing sales, supported by both fundamental and technical catalysts in 2026. Texas Roadhouse Grows Market Share Despite Commodity Headwinds Soaring beef prices have cast a long shadow over Texas Roadhouse for much of the past year. Prices have risen faster than overall inflation since the COVID-19 pandemic began, and the surge over the last two years has worried restaurant owners and investors alike. The rise has been driven in part by cattle shortages, which pushed live cow and steer prices to record levels — a dynamic likely to persist into 2027. Despite this headwind, Texas Roadhouse continues to grow same-store sales faster than many casual-dining rivals. Its barbell business strategy delivers value to cost-conscious customers while offering premium steaks and upcharge options for diners willing to splurge. In its Q3 2025 report released in November, the company posted same-store sales (comps) of 6.1% and nearly 13% YOY revenue growth despite a 224-basis-point increase in food and beverage costs. Texas Roadhouse raised prices by only 1.7% to help preserve value for its customers, a deliberate margin trade-off to retain traffic. Customer experience is central to the chain’s success. For restaurants that rely on repeat visits, traffic durability matters. Large portions, fast service, streamlined kitchen operations, and numerous add-ons and upgrades make Texas Roadhouse feel like a special night out without breaking the bank. Many customers say it’s "worth it" for date nights and family dinners because the value and experience meet expectations. 
TXRH shares have shown signs that the doldrums of 2025 may be behind them. The stock rose 11 consecutive days to open 2026, breaking through the 200-day SMA that had capped prior rallies. That streak was followed by a consolidation during which the Relative Strength Index (RSI) cooled to more neutral levels while the 50-day and 200-day SMAs converged. With a Golden Cross appearing imminent, the 50-day SMA could act as support for a new rally. That level has already been tested and held, and the share price is now approaching the 50-day moving average — a potential entry point for new investors. A near-term catalyst: the company is scheduled to report Q4 2025 results after the market closes on Feb. 19.
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