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This Month's Exclusive Content Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Authored by Leo Miller. Originally Published: 1/20/2026. 
Quick Look - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines in 2026 when shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — the stock's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have been pummeled as COVID-19's relevance has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock is still down more than 90% from its all-time high—even after the recent bounce. On September 14th, 2023, something big happened that didn't make the news. The price gap between London gold and Shanghai gold blew out to $120 an ounce. For years, that gap was a few dollars, maybe $5 or $10. A 20x jump in seconds isn't a glitch, it's the system breaking. Traders tried to buy gold in London to sell in Shanghai, but hit a wall. The London vaults were empty. Since that day, gold has hit 53 all-time highs. One stock is positioned to capture the bulk of this wealth transfer. See the full story on this opportunity now. With the stock deeply underwater and the pharma company recently lifting guidance, could Moderna shares have renewed life? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The jump followed an announcement of better-than-expected revenue guidance and improved cost-management metrics. The company now expects $1.9 billion in revenue in 2025—$100 million above its prior midpoint guidance. It also forecast operating expenses roughly $200 million below earlier estimates, implying non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 of $5.0 billion to $5.2 billion, about a $2 billion decrease from last year. On a cash basis, Moderna projects costs of $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion by 2027. Nearly all of Moderna's revenue still comes from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines — a dramatic contrast with late 2021, when the company generated $7.2 billion in one quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had completed the primary COVID-19 vaccine series, leaving a much smaller pool of potential patients. That makes it difficult for Moderna to achieve sustainable growth relying solely on COVID treatments. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeatable booster demand among high-risk individuals and seniors and by government contracts. The company has strategic partnerships with the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia, and 2026 will be the first full year to benefit from these deals. Notably, in Q1 2026 the firm expects to generate $200 million in sales from the U.K. government. Targeting high-risk populations and pursuing government partnerships could establish a steadier revenue base. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes its seasonal vaccine strategy, combined with cost reductions, can achieve breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine; if approved in 2026, it could begin generating meaningful revenue in 2027. Adding a second seasonal product would be a major catalyst and is likely essential to hit the 2028 target. However, seasonal markets alone offer limited long-term growth. To truly rekindle investor enthusiasm, Moderna will likely need success in non-seasonal areas such as oncology or rare diseases and regulatory approval for candidates in those categories. The company has several programs with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most important is its personalized cancer medicine intismeran: Moderna expects five-year Phase Two data in early 2026, with Phase Three results possible later that year. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock. Overall, significant uncertainty still surrounds Moderna's outlook. It's not guaranteed that COVID-19 vaccine sales have bottomed, and the company's long-term trajectory depends heavily on approvals in areas where it currently has no marketed therapies. The Trump administration has also been critical of mRNA technology, winding down government investments in the area where Moderna specializes, which has heightened concerns about future support and approvals. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target — near $30 — implies more than 25% downside from current levels. Seeing stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand, meaningful progress on non-seasonal pipelines, or additional durable government contracts would be key prerequisites to becoming more bullish on the stock's long-term prospects.
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