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More Reading from MarketBeat Media Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Authored by Leo Miller. Posted: 1/20/2026. 
Key Points - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines again in 2026. Shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — Moderna's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have been severely hit as COVID-19's relevance has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock remains down more than 90% from its all-time high — even after the recent bounce. If your retirement strategy involves "picking the right stocks," you're one crash away from disaster…
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And his followers have seen an 84%-win rate. Click here to see how he does it With the stock in such a deep hole, and the pharma company recently raising its outlook, is there potential for Moderna shares to recover? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The spike in Moderna's stock followed the company's release of stronger-than-expected revenue guidance and improved cost-management metrics. For 2025, Moderna said it expects to generate $1.9 billion in revenue — $100 million above its prior midpoint guidance. It also forecast operating expenses about $200 million below previous estimates. This would leave the firm's non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 between $5 billion and $5.2 billion, roughly a $2 billion decline from the prior year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs to be between $3.5 billion and $3.9 billion in 2027. Nearly all of Moderna's sales continue to come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines. That compares with the company's late-2021 peak, when it generated $7.2 billion in a single quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had received the complete primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine. That leaves a much smaller pool of potential customers, making it difficult for Moderna to return to sustained growth on COVID products alone. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeatable booster demand from high-risk individuals and seniors. The company has strategic agreements with the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia, and 2026 will be the first full year benefiting from those deals. Notably, Moderna expects about $200 million in sales from the U.K. government in Q1 2026. Targeting high-risk populations and pursuing government partnerships could help establish a revenue base going forward. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes its seasonal vaccine strategy, combined with cost reductions, can achieve breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine that could be approved in 2026 and start contributing meaningful revenue in 2027. Approval of a second seasonal product would be a significant catalyst and is important to the company's 2028 goal. However, to rekindle broad investor enthusiasm, Moderna will likely need success beyond seasonal vaccines. Seasonal markets provide a potential revenue floor but limited long-term growth. The company therefore needs progress in oncology and rare-disease programs to materially change its trajectory. Moderna has several candidates in those areas with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most important is its personalized cancer therapy, Intismeran, for which the company expects five-year Phase Two data in early 2026 and potential Phase Three results later that year. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock Overall, significant uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. It is not guaranteed that COVID-19 vaccine sales have reached a bottom. The company's long-term prospects depend heavily on gaining approvals in clinical areas where it has no marketed products today. The Trump administration has also reduced government investments in mRNA development, winding down programs that had supported the technology, which has added to concerns about future backing and regulatory momentum. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target sits near $30, implying more than 25% downside from current levels. A sustained stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand or meaningful non-seasonal clinical successes would be key prerequisites for a more bullish view on Moderna's long-term prospects.
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