the trade that finally broke me...

I want to tell you a quick story—because if you’ve ever struggled in the markets, you’ll see yourself in it.

A few years ago, I made what I thought was one of the best trades of my life.

Perfect chart setup.

Perfect timing.

Perfect rationale.

I did everything “right.”

And then…

within 48 hours…

everything unraveled.

You know the feeling:

That slow sinking in your gut as the candle moves the *wrong* direction…

That voice saying, “No, it’ll turn around… give it a little more time.”

That moment when you finally close the trade and stare at the loss thinking:

“How did I get blindsided AGAIN?”

That loss wasn’t the biggest I’d ever taken.

But it was the one that really slapped me up the side of my head.

Because deep down, for the first time, I admitted to myself:

“I’m not losing because I’m doing it wrong…

I’m losing because I’m playing the wrong game.”

And I was right.

See, what most retail traders never realize is this:

The entire system is structured so that you follow patterns, signals, and setups that institutions already know you’re going to follow.

They KNOW where you’ll enter.

They KNOW where you’ll set your stop.

They KNOW how you’ll react emotionally.

Meanwhile, they’re using:
* order-flow data you never see
* insider trading analysis
* volatility traps
* options positioning
* and dark-pool footprints

…to extract profits from the exact moves that wipe out retail accounts like yours and mine.

Once I understood that, something clicked.

And then I made a simple shift — a strategy change so subtle, yet so powerful — that it completely changed how my trades performed.

Instead of hoping a trade worked…

I knew the odds were stacked massively in my favor.

Instead of praying for direction…

I used a structural approach that didn’t require prediction at all.

And suddenly…

I found myself in positions where as many as 94% of the setups I used had the potential to end in profit.

Not because I got smarter.

Not because I learned “magic chart patterns.”

But because I stopped playing the retail game

…and started using the principles the pros use.

I've finally set up a free training [LINK] to show exactly what I discovered:

👉 Why most investors consistently underperform (and why it’s NOT their fault)
👉 The structural flaw that guarantees crappy results for the average trader
👉 The simple shift that flips the odds so heavily in your favor you’ll never want to go back
👉 How to align your trades with what the smart money is actually doing

If you’ve ever felt like you were “so close,”

or like something was missing,

or like you keep paying tuition to the markets…

…this training will hit you hard (and help you a lot).

And it might be the moment everything changes.

👉 Get the free training here

Every trader has a moment that wakes them up.

This could be yours.

Talk soon,
Shawn Casey & Brian Koz


 
 
 
 
 
 

Monday's Bonus News

Wendy's Stock Is Cheap, But Can the Turnaround Actually Work?

Author: Thomas Hughes. Posted: 2/17/2026.

Wendy’s burger, fries and Frosty with the Wendy’s logo, evoking a deep-value stock turnaround rebound.

Key Points

  • Wendy's is well-positioned to rebound, but the timing is questionable amid competitors taking market share.
  • Analysts are trimming targets but remain highly confident in the Hold rating. 
  • Institutions and short-sellers have the market set up to be squeezed when a catalyst emerges.
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Wendy’s (NASDAQ: WEN) stock has fallen sharply from its highs, creating what looks like a deep-value opportunity. Trading at roughly 12 times current-year earnings and under eight times the 2030 forecast, the valuation implies a potential, multi-hundred-percent upside versus industry leaders. The key question is whether management can execute a credible turnaround. The international growth story remains intact and supports current results, but self-inflicted problems in the core U.S. market are likely to weigh on performance this year.

Management acknowledges several missteps and is taking corrective action, which is encouraging. The challenge is repairing public perception: the company lost market share to competitors like McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) and has struggled to regain traffic. Several quarters of declining U.S. same-store sales, margin pressure, and weak guidance have compounded investor concerns.

Analysts Lead Wendy’s Stock to Long-Term Low

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Analyst trends are largely bearish, with consensus estimates drifting toward the low end of the target range. That points to another modest, low-single-digit downside from mid-February levels, but there is a silver lining.

Coverage has actually expanded: the number of analysts following Wendy’s rose in 2025 and is up about 30% to 26 analysts in Q1 2026. Despite the headwinds, the consensus rating is a Hold, with a relatively high 62% conviction score and an even split between Sell and Buy ratings.

Analysts identify a price floor near $7, consistent with recent long-term lows, while consensus forecasts imply roughly a 30% upside from current levels. The likely catalyst would be demonstrable improvement in earnings that translates into stronger free cash flow and a clearer capital-return plan.

Wendy’s has already trimmed its dividend and scaled back buybacks. If performance does not improve, further dividend reductions or a suspension remain possible.

Free cash flow is declining but still positive and currently covers distributions. The 2025 free cash flow payout ratio is roughly 62% — elevated, but leaving some room for debt servicing. The balance sheet shows falling cash, current assets and total assets, alongside higher long-term debt and liabilities, which pushed shareholder equity down more than 50% to about $117.3 million. Leverage is high: long-term debt is roughly 23 times equity and about 0.6 times total assets.

Short-Sellers Set Wendy’s Market Up For Rebound

Short interest is not at an all-time high but is hovering near historical peaks — roughly 20% of the float as of late January. Elevated short interest can constrain any meaningful rally until the positioning shifts, but when it does unwind, the rebound could be strong.

Institutional investors own more than 85% of the stock, which provides a base of support; institutional buying in early 2026 has outpaced selling by about two-to-one, suggesting a potential tailwind once sentiment improves.

From a technical perspective, critical support sits near the long-term lows reached during the height of the COVID-19 downturn — around $6.82, just beneath the low-end analyst target of $7. Momentum indicators, including MACD and stochastic, show the shares are deeply oversold, and trading volume has risen as the price fell, indicating buyers are stepping in at lower levels.

WEN stock chart displaying a fall to long-term lows.

That said, the rebound may be limited if upcoming results disappoint. If the company fails to show improving comps, cash flow or margin trajectory, its shares could test new lows and trigger a deeper selloff. Wendy’s expects weak comparable sales to persist, is planning additional store closures to optimize its footprint, and has guided revenue and earnings below consensus.

Consumer Tailwinds Can Be a Catalyst for Wendy’s

Early indicators suggest consumer tailwinds may emerge in 2026. Labor markets remain resilient, supporting broad employment, and tax refunds appear larger this year — early data show refunds averaging more than 10% higher than in 2025. That boost to household cash flow is constructive for consumers and for consumer stocks such as Wendy’s.


 

Monday's Bonus News

Vertiv Earnings Prove the AI Infrastructure Boom Is Intact

Author: Chris Markoch. Posted: 2/11/2026.

Vertiv logo on glowing data-center cooling hardware, highlighting AI infrastructure demand and VRT stock momentum.

Key Points

  • Vertiv’s quarter featured a slight revenue miss but a clear EPS beat, reinforcing strong AI-driven demand for cooling and power infrastructure in data centers.
  • Orders, backlog, and a bullish 2026 outlook remain the core drivers behind the post-earnings surge in VRT shares.
  • Technically, the stock looks extended after breaking above key resistance, making pullbacks or consolidations the more favorable entry setups.
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If there's an AI bubble, the memo never reached Vertiv (NYSE: VRT) or its customers. The company delivered an earnings report and guidance that show demand for its cooling systems remains strong — a reminder that, even in frothy markets, it often pays to own the best businesses.

Vertiv's headline numbers were mixed against estimates. Revenue of $2.88 billion came in just under the $2.89 billion forecast but was still 22.5% higher year-over-year (YOY). Earnings per share of $1.36 beat expectations of $1.29 and rose about 37% YOY.

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Shares of VRT stock popped 12% in the premarket and continued to gain — trading more than 18% higher midday — as strong labor data eased broader economic concerns, including those around technology stocks.

Buy-the-dip hunters will likely have to wait; with the stock looking extended, investors should watch for a pullback that could present a buying opportunity.

An Essential Technology for Data Centers

Vertiv makes and services equipment and software that support power availability, thermal management and IT infrastructure management across several end markets, including data centers.

Its water-cooled rack systems and other solutions are critical to meeting AI's continuous compute demands. Those systems run 24/7 and generate significant heat — which is why companies need Vertiv's cooling and infrastructure products.

That demand showed up in the earnings report:

  • Trailing twelve-month (TTM) organic orders growth of approximately 81% YOY.
  • Fourth-quarter orders up about 252% YOY and approximately 117% sequentially.
  • Book-to-bill ratio of approximately 2.9x.

The recent rally in VRT stock largely reflects institutional enthusiasm for the company's 2026 outlook:

  • Backlog of about $15 billion, up roughly $7.8 billion (109% YOY) and up 57% sequentially.
  • Robust global order-pipeline growth in Q4 across product technologies and regions, driven primarily by continued expansion in AI and data center infrastructure investments.
  • Vertiv expects 2026 orders to be up YOY.
  • 2025 pricing exceeded inflation, and Vertiv expects that trend to continue in 2026.

In the immediate aftermath of the report, analyst pages on MarketBeat don't yet show new upgrades or price-target increases. However, the trend has been bullish, with many targets running well ahead of the consensus price target of $187.89.

At $237.46 as of this writing, the stock trades well above the consensus and even above the highest analyst target. Analysts may have been reluctant to take a public stance before the report; now sentiment looks likely to shift toward the bullish side — perhaps aggressively.

How Should Investors Play VRT Stock?

After earnings, VRT broke above the roughly $200 level that had acted as resistance, confirming the bullish trend reversal that began in mid-December.

That said, the stock appears extended, increasing the odds of a mean reversion. The rally has pushed VRT above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and the upper Bollinger Band.

The relative strength index is around 76, which signals overbought momentum. At the same time, the MACD histogram is expanding, suggesting continued impulse buying could precede a pullback.

Existing VRT shareholders may consider trimming into strength — taking some profits now and waiting for a decisive drop below the 20-day SMA as a re-entry point.

Prospective buyers might wait for a pullback to the prior resistance zone between $195 and $205. If the stock consolidates at these higher levels instead of falling, that could indicate a new base is forming.

Vertiv stock chart jumps above upper Bollinger band as MACD expands, signaling strong data-center momentum.


 
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