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Exclusive Story MCD and TXRH: 2 Low-Risk Restaurant Stocks With UpsideAuthor: Dan Schmidt. Posted: 2/17/2026. 
What You Need to Know - The restaurant industry has become a key indicator for the K-shaped economy.
- Winners and losers are beginning to emerge based on the perceived value they offer to both higher-end and lower-end customers.
- McDonald's and Texas Roadhouse continue to grow comps despite the tough environment thanks to their value-oriented focus that keeps diners coming back.
The restaurant sector has often been at the forefront of the debate on the K-shaped economy. While consumer sentiment often diverges from actual behavior — especially in the retail sector — the food-service industry reveals these divergent trends quickly. The top of the 'K' continues to indulge, while more cost-conscious consumers at the bottom hunt for value to stretch their dollars. In this environment, two restaurants are standing out for different reasons. The numbers speak for themselves: both McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) and Texas Roadhouse Inc. (NASDAQ: TXRH) are growing comparable sales and taking share from competitors. Below, we explain why these two companies have thrived in a challenging dining landscape and why their stocks could outperform the restaurant industry this year. McDonald's Continues to Dominate the Fast-Food Market A former U.S. government advisor has released a new briefing examining potential policy developments heading into 2026 and how they could influence markets.
The presentation focuses on historical context, upcoming milestones, and why some analysts believe next year could mark a significant turning point for long-term investors. It's designed to provide perspective and help readers understand what may be unfolding before it becomes widely discussed. View the full briefing here The recent earnings reports from McDonald’s and Wendy’s Co. (NASDAQ: WEN) illustrated how fast-food operators are separating themselves. McDonald’s reported Q4 2025 results last week and beat expectations on both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue, posting 9.7% year-over-year (YOY) sales growth. Global same-store sales outperformed forecasts with 5.7% YOY growth, including 6.8% growth in the United States. By contrast, Wendy’s Q4 2025 report showed revenue down 5.5% YOY and U.S. same-store sales off 11.3%. How has McDonald’s managed near-7% U.S. sales growth while other QSRs struggle? Value, value, and more value. The company projects operating margins above 40% in 2026, which gives it the flexibility to pursue a Value Leadership strategy. Unlike the limited-time promotions run by Wendy’s and Burger King, McDonald’s Value Menu 2.0 is a permanent fixture. Extra Value Meals were reintroduced last September, and earlier this year the company launched the McValue platform, which includes $5 Meal Deals and Buy One, Get One for $1 offers. The Grinch Meal holiday promotion produced the biggest single-day sales figure in the company’s history. The McDonald’s app, with roughly 200 million active users, helps drive repeat visits. A marketing focus on chicken items like the McCrispy also helps mitigate the impact of beef-price inflation. The company plans to open about 2,600 additional restaurants this year, while competitors such as Wendy’s are closing underperforming locations.  The breakout in MCD shares started well before last week’s earnings. A bullish crossover in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator coincided with the stock climbing above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), signaling strong upward momentum. If lower-income consumers continue trading down for value, McDonald’s is well-positioned to keep growing sales, with both fundamental and technical catalysts in 2026. Texas Roadhouse Grows Market Share Despite Commodity Headwinds Soaring beef prices have hovered over Texas Roadhouse shares for much of the past year. Beef costs have risen faster than general inflation since the COVID-19 pandemic, and the surge over the last two years has worried restaurant owners and investors alike. The rise has been driven in part by cattle shortages, which pushed live cow and steer prices to record levels — a dynamic likely to persist into 2027. Despite that headwind, Texas Roadhouse continues to grow same-store sales faster than many casual-dining rivals. Texas Roadhouse’s barbell business strategy offers low-cost options for budget-conscious customers while also providing premium steaks and upcharge choices for diners willing to splurge. In its Q3 2025 report, the company reported comps of 6.1% and nearly 13% YOY revenue growth despite a 224-basis-point increase in food and beverage costs. Texas Roadhouse raised menu prices by just 1.7%, a deliberate margin sacrifice intended to retain value-oriented guests. Customer experience is central to Texas Roadhouse’s success. Traffic durability — the ability to keep customers coming back — is crucial for casual-dining chains that rely on repeat sales. Large portions, fast service, streamlined kitchens and many add-ons give Texas Roadhouse the feel of a special night out without breaking the bank. Guests often say it’s "worth it" for date nights and family dinners because the perceived value and experience meet expectations.  TXRH’s performance so far this year suggests the doldrums of 2025 may be behind it. The stock rose 11 consecutive days to open 2026, clearing the 200-day SMA that had resisted earlier breakout attempts. That win streak was followed by consolidation, during which the Relative Strength Index (RSI) cooled to more neutral territory while the 50-day and 200-day SMAs converged. With a Golden Cross appearing imminent, the 50-day SMA could become a key support for a new rally. That level has already been tested and held, and the share price is now approaching the 50-day moving average — potentially an attractive entry point. An additional catalyst arrives this week when the company reports its Q4 2025 results after the market closes on Feb. 19.
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