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Matador's Results Were Better Than Feared, But 2026 Headwinds Still Matter
Reported by Thomas Hughes. First Published: 2/27/2026.
Key Points
- Matador is positioned as a quality Permian operator with a midstream cushion, steady cash flow, and ongoing capital returns despite a softer 2026 oil tape.
- Q4 2025 results and 2026 guidance are framed as better than feared, with production growth and lower spending supporting dividends and buybacks.
- The main near-term risk is institutional flow and technical resistance, which could cap upside and pressure shares before a longer-term rebound.
- Special Report: [Sponsorship-Ad-6-Format3]
Matador Resources (NYSE: MTDR) faces headwinds in 2026, including weak oil prices and softer market sentiment, but it remains a buy for long-term investors. Matador, a high-quality play on unconventional oil in West Texas and New Mexico, continues to grow its business — expanding acreage, proven reserves, operating wells, and production while generating positive cash flow and returning capital to shareholders. The key takeaway: the company is improving quality, positioning itself for long-term success at current oil price levels and for an accelerated earnings rebound if (when) oil prices recover.
Insider activity is one of several indicators of this company's quality. Insiders own nearly 6% of the stock and have been active buyers since the COVID-19 lows in 2020. While no purchases have been logged in 2026 as of late February, MarketBeat data shows insider buying ramped up in 2025, reaching record levels in Q4 2025.
Matador Reports Strength in Q4 2025: Issues Strong Guidance for 2026
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Matador posted solid results for Q4 2025, despite lower oil prices. The company generated nearly $850 million in net revenue, down 12.6% year over year, and it exceeded consensus expectations by a wide margin. Production volumes rose both year over year and sequentially, and midstream operations performed well — an important factor because midstream cash flows provide a regular dividend tied to volumes rather than commodity prices.
Margins were stronger than feared. Production operations generated positive cash flow, and midstream contributions were more robust than anticipated. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.87, down more than 50% year over year but $0.11 ahead of expectations, supporting healthy cash flow, capital returns, and balance sheet improvements.
Guidance supports both growth and continued capital returns. Matador forecasts roughly 3% production growth and an 11% reduction in capital spending, which should create room for dividends and share repurchases.
Matador's dividend is substantial, yielding about 3% at share prices in the high-$40s, and it is relatively reliable — the payout accounts for roughly 25% of the 2026 earnings forecast. The company has raised the dividend seven times over the past five years and appears to have capacity to do so again. Buybacks are meaningful as well: shares outstanding fell by 0.9% year over year in Q4, and repurchases are expected to continue.
Analysts and Institutions Cap Gains for MTDR in Early 2026
Analyst and institutional trends are generally favorable, but caution in early 2026 has limited the stock's upside. Fifteen analysts tracked by MarketBeat rate the stock as a Moderate Buy with a 73% buy-side bias, though many have trimmed price targets. Recent targets sit toward the low end of the range — potentially as low as $47, which may act as a near-term floor — while consensus still implies roughly 20% upside.
The larger risk comes from institutions, which collectively own about 92% of the stock after accumulating through 2025. Selling in Q1 2026 has outpaced buying, creating a headwind; if that trend continues, MTDR could struggle to hold current levels and might revisit recent lows.
Price action reflects those headwinds. While a bottom appears to be forming, the early-2026 rebound stalled below the mid-point of the long-term trading range, aligning with resistance near long-term exponential moving averages. That setup suggests the stock remains under pressure and could drift toward the $40 level by midyear if selling persists.
The key question is whether institutions return to buying at lower levels or whether price action deteriorates further. In an extreme downside scenario the shares could fall much lower, but that outcome is not the base case. Trading at roughly 5x its 2030 earnings forecasts, MTDR looks undervalued relative to its longer-term potential; effective execution by management could materially boost the stock. A potential catalyst in 2026 is Energy Transfer's (NYSE: ET) soon-to-be-opened Hugh Brinson pipeline, which is expected to connect Matador to the higher-paying Henry Hub market.
One of the Top Performing ETFs of 2026 So Far May Surprise You
Reported by Nathan Reiff. First Published: 2/16/2026.
Key Points
- BWET is one of the leading ETFs by year-to-date performance, with returns of around 98% so far in 2026.
- The fund has a unique focus on oil freight futures, generating profit when oil shipment prices rise beyond market expectations.
- However, BWET's sky-high expenses, limited asset base, and low trading volume all present additional risks on top of an already-complex strategy.
- Special Report: [Sponsorship-Ad-6-Format3]
As the market settles into 2026, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remain as popular an investment as ever. U.S. ETFs drew an incredible $1.48 trillion in total inflows in 2025 as hundreds of new products launched, further broadening the range of strategies available to investors through these vehicles.
With uncertainty about geopolitics, shifting trade patterns, a possible AI bubble, and other risks, some investors may increasingly favor ETFs for their defensive potential. At the same time, a number of funds have started 2026 with strong momentum and could present opportunities for investors with higher risk tolerance to capture impressive gains early in the year.
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One standout is the Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF (NYSEARCA: BWET), which sits near the top of the list of best-performing ETFs so far in 2026. BWET has returned nearly 100% year-to-date (YTD) and about 223% over the past 12 months. Below, we'll examine the drivers behind this performance, whether the rally might continue, and key considerations for investors thinking about adding this high-momentum ETF to a portfolio.
A Closer Look at BWET's Strategy
BWET gives investors exposure to the crude oil transport market via the Breakwave Tanker Futures Index, which tracks crude oil tanker freight rates by investing in futures contracts. As one of the few ways to access freight futures without trading futures directly, BWET's exposure goes beyond simply holding shares of oil tanker companies.
Specifically, the fund seeks to generate returns when the price of oil freight futures rises more than what the market has already priced in.
Global oil shipping is a vital part of the energy supply chain, involving major exporting countries (such as the United States, Venezuela, and Brazil) and large importers (including China and many European nations). Shipping rates reached a multi-year high late in 2025 as demand rose, and with cold winter temperatures continuing in parts of the world, demand may remain elevated in the near term.
BWET's method uses oil freight futures with maturities of one to six months and a weighted average expiration between 60 and 90 days. Most of the index focuses on very large crude carriers (VLCCs), the tankers with the greatest capacity.
Evaluating BWET's Recent and Potential Performance
BWET's surge in recent months is likely tied to winter-season demand and changes in global oil trade stemming from ongoing U.S. pressure on Venezuela and other political developments. While winter demand is expected to persist through March, seasonal demand typically eases afterward, suggesting some of this year's gains may be cyclical.
At the same time, the broader effects of geopolitical tensions on the global oil market could continue to evolve. Those who expect further turmoil to keep freight rates elevated may see potential for BWET to extend its rally, but the timing and magnitude of such moves are difficult to predict.
Other Factors to Consider
Despite its strong performance, several important risks and limitations deserve attention before adding BWET to a portfolio. Investing in futures contracts—even indirectly through an ETF—introduces complexity and risks that differ from traditional equity investments. BWET's niche strategy appeals to a relatively small investor base: the ETF has roughly $8.5 million in assets under management and low average trading volume, which can widen bid-ask spreads and add transaction costs for active traders.
Costs are another consideration. The fund carries a high expense ratio of 3.5%. The sponsor had offered to cap the fee at 3.5% through the end of 2025 and warned that expenses could rise afterward. Those fees can materially erode returns, especially if the fund's momentum slows. Investors seeking exposure to the oil market may find lower-cost or more liquid alternatives elsewhere, depending on their objectives and risk tolerance (see examples).
Bottom line: BWET has delivered eye-catching short-term returns by capturing moves in oil freight futures, but the fund's complexity, limited liquidity, and high fees make it most suitable for experienced investors who understand futures-based products and are comfortable with concentrated, higher-risk exposure. For most investors, any allocation to BWET should likely be small and part of a diversified plan after careful due diligence.
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