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Today's Exclusive Article Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Submitted by Leo Miller. Originally Published: 1/20/2026. 
At a Glance - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the recent past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines in 2026 when shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — the company's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have been pummeled as COVID-19's relevance has waned. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock remains down more than 90% from its all-time high, even after the recent bounce. There are 90 paper gold claims for every real ounce in COMEX vaults. Ninety promises, one ounce of metal. It's like musical chairs with 90 players and one chair. COMEX gold inventory dropped 25 percent last year alone as gold flows East to Shanghai, Mumbai, and Moscow. On March 31st, contract holders can demand delivery. When similar situations arose in the past, markets closed and rules changed. Paper holders got crushed while mining stock holders made fortunes. One stock sits at the center of this crisis. Get the full story on this opportunity now. With the stock in such a deep hole and the pharma company having recently raised its outlook, is it possible Moderna shares still have upside? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The spike in Moderna's stock followed an announcement of stronger-than-expected revenue guidance and improved cost-management metrics. For 2025, the company said it expects to generate $1.9 billion in revenue — $100 million above its previously outlined midpoint guidance. Moderna also forecasted operating expenses about $200 million below prior estimates. That would result in non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 of $5 billion to $5.2 billion, roughly $2 billion lower than the prior year. On a cash basis, the company expects costs of $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion by 2027. Nearly all of Moderna's sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million was from COVID vaccines — a far cry from late 2021, when the company posted $7.2 billion in one quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world’s population had completed the primary COVID-19 vaccine series. That leaves a much smaller pool of potential vaccine recipients, making it difficult for Moderna to achieve sustainable growth relying solely on COVID treatments. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeatable booster demand from high-risk individuals and seniors. The company also highlighted strategic government partnerships — with Canada, the U.K., and Australia — that it says will start contributing meaningfully in 2026. Notably, Moderna expects about $200 million in Q1 2026 sales from the U.K. government. Targeting high-risk populations and pursuing government contracts could establish a revenue base on which to build. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna says its seasonal vaccine strategy, together with cost reductions, can produce breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine that could be approved in 2026 and begin generating meaningful revenue in 2027. Approval and uptake of a second seasonal product would be a major catalyst. However, seasonal markets have limited long-term growth potential. For investors to regain strong enthusiasm, Moderna will likely need success beyond seasonal vaccines — particularly in oncology and rare disease programs where it currently has no approved therapies. Several Moderna candidates in those areas have pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most important is its personalized cancer medicine, intismeran: the company expects five-year Phase 2 data in early 2026, and Phase 3 data possibly in late 2026. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock Overall, uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. It is far from certain that COVID-19 vaccine sales have reached their trough. More importantly, the company's long-term prospects hinge on regulatory success in clinical areas where it has no approved products today. The current federal administration has also reduced government investments in mRNA development, winding down programs that previously supported the technology — a factor that could affect future approvals and commercial momentum. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target sits near $30, implying more than 25% downside from current levels. Seeing a stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand and progress in non-seasonal programs would be key prerequisites before becoming more bullish on Moderna's long-term prospects.
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