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This Week's Featured Article Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?By Leo Miller. Article Published: 1/20/2026. 
At a Glance - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines again in 2026. Shares rose more than 17% on Jan. 13 — Moderna's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have largely fallen as COVID-19's prominence waned. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock remains down more than 90% from its all-time high — even after the recent bounce. Jerome Powell says gold is not money. The Fed says inflation is under control and the dollar is strong. But look at what they do. Central banks bought more gold last year than any time since 1967. China dumped $100 billion in U.S. debt, then bought gold. Poland, Hungary, Singapore, and Turkey are all loading up. In 2022, the U.S. froze Russia's money and showed the world that assets can be seized. Now major nations want out. There's only one asset no one can freeze: gold. Get the name and ticker of one stock positioned for this shift. With the stock in such a deep hole and the pharma company recently raising its outlook, is there reason to think Moderna shares can recover? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The recent spike in Moderna's stock followed the company announcing stronger-than-expected revenue guidance and improved cost-management metrics. For 2025, the company now expects to generate $1.9 billion in revenue — $100 million above its previously outlined midpoint guidance. Moderna also forecasted operating expenses roughly $200 million below earlier estimates. That would put non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 between $5 billion and $5.2 billion, about a $2 billion decrease from the prior year. On a cash basis, the company expects costs to be between $3.5 billion and $3.9 billion by 2027. Almost all of Moderna's sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines. That figure is dwarfed by late 2021 results, when the company generated $7.2 billion in one quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had received the complete primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine. That leaves a much smaller pool of potential patients for Moderna to target, making it difficult to rely solely on COVID treatments for long-term growth. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026 by focusing on repeatable COVID-19 booster sales to high-risk individuals and seniors. The company has strategic contracts with the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia, and 2026 will be the first year it sees the full-year benefit of these partnerships. Notably, in Q1 2026 the firm expects about $200 million in sales from the U.K. government. Targeting high-risk populations and pursuing government partnerships could provide a stable revenue base moving forward. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna says its seasonal vaccine strategy, combined with cost reductions, can deliver breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine that could be approved in 2026 and begin driving meaningful revenue in 2027. Approval and successful commercialization of a second seasonal product would be a significant catalyst and important for the company's 2028 goal. However, to reinsert itself as a growth company, Moderna likely needs success beyond seasonal vaccines. Seasonal markets can provide a revenue floor but offer limited long-term expansion. The company will therefore need positive outcomes in oncology or rare-disease programs to change the growth trajectory. Moderna has several candidates with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most consequential is its personalized cancer medicine, intismeran. The company expects five-year Phase 2 data in early 2026, with Phase 3 results possible in late 2026. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock Overall, uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. It's far from certain that COVID-19 vaccine sales have hit their floor. Long-term prospects hinge on gaining regulatory approval in new therapeutic areas where Moderna currently has no marketed products. At the same time, shifts in U.S. government support for mRNA development — including moves to wind down certain investments — have added to concerns about future funding and regulatory momentum. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch rather than buy aggressively. The consensus price target sits near $30, implying more than 25% downside from recent levels. Seeing stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand and positive clinical readouts outside seasonal products would be important prerequisites before becoming more bullish on the company's long-term prospects.
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