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More Reading from MarketBeat Johnson & Johnson Quietly Triggers a Trend Following Buy SignalReported by Thomas Hughes. Published: 1/23/2026. 
In Brief - Johnson & Johnson pulled back into a trend-following entry after its Q4 2025 release and guidance update.
- Analysts and institutional trends support the stock's price action and point to new highs in 2026.
- Capital return and capital return growth are factors, with both reliable for the foreseeable future.
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), amid headlines about Trump's Greenland agenda and renewed trade-war fears, is quietly executing its healthcare strategy—growing revenue and widening margins—and positioning its stock to trend higher. A recent earnings release and 2026 guidance update, while strong, prompted a price pullback that created a trend-following buying opportunity. 
The former CEO of Google calls it the most important thing to happen in 500, maybe 1,000 years of human society. A former U.S. Treasury Secretary says when your great-grandchildren write the history of this period, the political headlines will be the second or third story. The first story is something none of us have seen before. The dot-com collapse, global financial crisis, and COVID-19 pandemic don't compare to what's coming next. We may be entering a period of dramatic, almost unimaginable change. See the full warning and how to prepare now. What is a trend-following signal? Assuming the trend is up, as it is with JNJ stock, a trend-following signal happens when the price action retreats to a common trend-following indicator—such as a moving average or trend line—and then confirms support at that level. This affirms buyer presence and increases the potential for a rebound while lowering entry risk. The likely outcome is that the stock resumes its steady advance and sets fresh highs in the near term. Johnson & Johnson's Healthy Business and Pipeline Underpin Stock Price Action Johnson & Johnson's Q4 results highlighted the strength of its portfolio and pipeline, with revenue up 9.1% year over year and nearly 200 basis points above expectations. The gain was driven by core strength in Innovative Medicine and MedTech, aided by acquisitions. The company reported organic growth of 7.1% and adjusted growth of 6.1%, and expects to sustain a mid-single-digit pace in 2026. Margins, roughly in line with consensus expectations, nonetheless showed year-over-year improvement and were a constructive element of the report. The company's adjusted earnings met expectations and improved significantly compared with the prior year. With adjusted earnings up more than 20%, J&J reinforced an already strong balance sheet and capital-return outlook. Management's guidance was solid—perhaps conservative. The company targets 6.7% revenue growth and margin expansion, both above consensus. Momentum in core segments (notably blockbusters like Darzalex) and continued pipeline advancement could allow the firm to exceed its guidance in the next report. Finally, the company reported positive results from several trials and submitted its OTTAVA robotic surgical system for De Novo classification. If approved, OTTAVA would open a new revenue stream with the potential for high-double-digit growth for several years. Johnson & Johnson Results Align With Bullish Analyst Trends Given Q4 strength and the outlook, bullish analyst momentum appears intact. Of the 29 analysts tracked by MarketBeat, the consensus rating is a Moderate Buy and price targets are rising. The consensus price target implies the stock is roughly fairly valued relative to the pre-release close, but the trend points toward the high end of the range—implying about 10% upside to a fresh all-time high. Institutions accumulated shares in 2025 and early 2026, which may help limit downside if the stock pulls back. Johnson & Johnson's dividend also appeals to analysts and institutions. The yield is nearly 2.5% even with shares near record highs, and the payment is expected to grow over time. The company is a Dividend King with more than 60 years of annual increases. A relatively low payout ratio of about 50% suggests modest, single-digit increases are sustainable for the foreseeable future. Risks for JNJ shareholders in 2026 include ongoing talc litigation, competition from Stelara biosimilars, and execution risk tied to the OTTAVA launch. Talc litigation is moving forward, and a court has allowed the plaintiff's expert testimony—a potential headwind the company will seek to rebut. Meanwhile, Stelara lost patent protection in 2025 and will face increasing biosimilar competition; Stelara accounted for roughly 11.5% of 2024 revenue and its sales fell more than 40% in 2025.
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