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Featured News from MarketBeat.com Guidewire's Buyback Could Be the Clue the Sell-Off Is EndingAuthored by Thomas Hughes. First Published: 1/16/2026. 
At a Glance - Guidewire’s new $500M share buyback supports investor confidence and could accelerate its path to equity gains despite a rising share count.
- Institutional selling in late 2025 has given way to early‑2026 accumulation, setting the stage for a potential rebound after a deep price correction.
- Analyst sentiment remains bullish with a Moderate Buy consensus and upside forecasts driven by cloud migration, AI integration, and product expansion.
Share buyback authorizations — such as the $500 million program recently announced by Guidewire Software (NYSE: GWRE) — are an important signal to investors because they reflect management's confidence in growth and cash flow. The new authorization extends an earlier program that has now completed. At roughly 3.4% of the company's market capitalization, the repurchase authorization could provide equity leverage as well as a sentiment boost. A caveat: recent buyback activity hasn't yet reduced Guidewire's share count because share-based compensation offset repurchases. In 2025 the net share count rose about 1.5% (including stock-based compensation), while Q1 fiscal 2026 (FY2026) showed a smaller 0.6% increase. If repurchases accelerate in 2026, investors could see the share count stabilize or decline as the company's growth and financial health improve. Institutions Are the Key to Unlocking Guidewire's Share Price Rebound The former CEO of Google calls it the most important thing to happen in 500, maybe 1,000 years of human society. A former U.S. Treasury Secretary says when your great-grandchildren write the history of this period, the political headlines will be the second or third story. The first story is something none of us have seen before. The dot-com collapse, global financial crisis, and COVID-19 pandemic don't compare to what's coming next. We may be entering a period of dramatic, almost unimaginable change. See the full warning and how to prepare now. Guidewire's price correction in Q4 calendar 2025 was steep — the stock fell roughly 30% from its high to its low. MarketBeat data indicate this was largely profit-taking that has become overextended and may be poised to reverse. Q4 selling was predominantly institutional: institutions, including hedge funds, own more than 90% of the float and sold heavily through 2025, coinciding with the market top. Earlier in the cycle the stock had climbed several hundred percent from prior levels. The trigger for a rebound will be a reversion from distribution back to accumulation, a trend that appears to have already begun. MarketBeat data show institutional investors buying GWRE in the first two weeks of 2026, and that activity will likely accelerate as Q1 FY2026 progresses. Valuation concerns contributed to the pullback. At its 2025 peak the stock traded near 65x current-year earnings and remained elevated at about 58x in early 2026 — valuations that assume very strong growth and may be optimistic. Guidewire's Q1 FY2026 results showed top- and bottom-line outperformance, accelerated earnings growth, and a constructive outlook for the year. If the company continues to execute on its go-to-market strategies, there appears to be upside not only in fundamentals but also in analyst sentiment. Using a conservative multiple on the long-term forecast, the stock could re-rate significantly versus insurance-related peers and higher-quality tech names. Analysts Agree Guidewire Software Looks Undervalued in Early 2026 Q1 FY2026 prompted a mixed yet constructive reaction from analysts — including one price-target cut, two reaffirmations, one increase and an upgrade — but the overall takeaway is bullish. Consensus across 17 analysts equates to a Moderate Buy, roughly 70% of analysts rate it a Buy, and the consensus target implies about 60% upside versus the current price, suggesting potential gains toward record levels. Guidewire's 2026 catalysts include accelerating cloud migration, deeper AI integration, new product development and an expanding partner ecosystem. Cloud adoption across verticals supports the growth outlook, while AI initiatives offer insurance customers operational and customer-facing efficiencies. In 2025 Guidewire also eliminated education fees, which helped increase the number of trained professionals on the platform and improve customer stickiness over time. Oversold Signals Suggest Guidewire Is Near a Turning Point Price action in 2025 and early 2026 pushed GWRE down to roughly the $170 level, aligning it with long-term moving averages. Technical indicators such as the MACD and stochastics suggest the stock is deeply oversold at these levels, which are roughly in line with the low end of analysts' expectations and could set the stage for a rebound. The primary risk is a break below critical support, which could extend the sell-off toward about $150 before a recovery begins. 
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