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Bonus Article from MarketBeat Media Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Reported by Leo Miller. Posted: 1/20/2026. 
Article Highlights - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines in 2026 when shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — the company's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have been pummeled as COVID-19's relevance has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock remains down more than 90% from its all-time high despite the recent bounce. Jeff Clark has kept his Crossfire strategy close for years. But he's no longer working with his Silicon Valley clients… So, he can reveal the whole thing in a new free strategy session. It's a rare opportunity to learn his three-step process for potentially massive profits. Click here to watch now. With the stock in such a deep hole and the pharma company recently raising its outlook, is there still life in Moderna shares? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The spike in Moderna's stock followed better-than-expected revenue guidance and strong cost-management targets. For 2025, the company said it now expects roughly $1.9 billion in revenue — about $100 million above its prior midpoint guidance — and forecasted operating expenses about $200 million below earlier estimates. That would put Moderna's nonadjusted operating expenses for 2025 in the $5.0 billion to $5.2 billion range, roughly $2 billion lower than the prior year. On a cash basis, the company expects costs of $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion by 2027. Nearly all of Moderna's current sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the company's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million was from COVID vaccines — a dramatic decline from late 2021, when the company generated $7.2 billion in one quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had completed a primary COVID-19 vaccine series, leaving a much smaller pool of potential vaccine recipients. That reality makes it hard to see sustainable growth from COVID products alone. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeatable booster demand among high-risk individuals and seniors. The company also has strategic partnerships with the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia; 2026 will be the first year Moderna sees the full benefit of those agreements. Notably, in Q1 2026 it expects roughly $200 million in sales from the U.K. government. Targeting high-risk populations and securing government deals could provide a steady revenue base going forward. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes a seasonal-vaccine strategy combined with cost reductions can achieve breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine; if approved in 2026, that product could begin contributing meaningfully in 2027. A second seasonal product would be an important catalyst, but approval is essential to give Moderna a realistic shot at its 2028 target. For investors to get truly excited, Moderna will likely need wins outside the seasonal market. Seasonal vaccines provide a potential revenue floor but limited long-term growth. The company will need approvals in oncology or rare diseases to expand its addressable market. Several Moderna candidates in these arenas have pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most important is its personalized cancer vaccine, intismeran: Moderna expects five-year Phase Two data in early 2026, with potential Phase Three data later that year. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock Uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. It is far from certain that COVID-19 vaccine sales have bottomed, and the company's long-term prospects hinge on approvals in clinical areas where it currently has no marketed therapies. The Trump administration has also been critical of mRNA technology, winding down government investments in the platform, which has added to concerns about future support and approvals. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch rather than a definite buy. The consensus price target — near $30 — implies roughly 25% downside from current levels, reflecting continued skepticism from analysts. In the near term, signs of stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand and clear progress from non-seasonal programs would be the key catalysts needed to become more bullish on Moderna's long-term prospects.
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