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Just For You Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Reported by Leo Miller. Posted: 1/20/2026. 
Key Points - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines in 2026 when shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — the company's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have been pummeled as COVID-19's relevance has waned. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock is still down more than 90% from its all-time high, even after the recent bounce. A Gold IRA allows you to hold real, physical gold inside a tax-advantaged retirement account. It's legal. It's established. And it's becoming increasingly popular among people who want stability, not speculation.
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If you're serious about protecting your retirement, this is worth a few minutes of your time. Get the free guide here. With the stock in such a deep hole, and the pharma company recently lifting its outlook, is there still life in Moderna shares? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The spike in Moderna stock followed the company's announcement of better-than-expected revenue guidance and improved cost management. For 2025, Moderna said it expects to generate $1.9 billion in revenue — $100 million above its previously outlined midpoint. It also forecast operating expenses about $200 million below prior estimates, putting non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 between $5 billion and $5.2 billion — roughly a $2 billion decline from the prior year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs to be between $3.5 billion and $3.9 billion by 2027. Essentially all of Moderna's sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines, a steep contrast with late 2021 when the company generated $7.2 billion in a single quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had received the complete primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine. That leaves a much smaller pool of potential patients, making it difficult for Moderna to rely on COVID treatments alone for sustainable growth. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, forecasting repeatable booster sales from high-risk individuals and seniors. The company has strategic partnerships with the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia, and 2026 will be the first full year to reflect those agreements. Notably, Moderna expects roughly $200 million in sales from the U.K. government in Q1 2026. Targeting high-risk populations and continuing government deals could establish a steadier revenue base. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes a seasonal vaccine strategy, combined with cost reductions, can deliver breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine; if approved in 2026, it could begin contributing meaningful revenue in 2027. That would be an important second seasonal product and a key catalyst toward the 2028 goal. However, to excite investors about long-term upside, Moderna likely needs successes beyond seasonal vaccines. Seasonal markets offer limited long-term growth, so approval in areas like oncology or rare diseases would be more transformative. Moderna has several candidates in those areas with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most important is its personalized cancer therapy, intismeran: the company expects five-year Phase Two data in early 2026, with potential Phase Three data in late 2026. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock Overall, uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. Whether COVID-19 vaccine sales have truly bottomed is far from certain. The company's long-term future depends heavily on achieving approvals in clinical areas where it currently has no marketed products. The Trump administration has also been critical of mRNA technology, winding down government investments in the sector in which Moderna specializes, which has heightened concerns about future support and approvals. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target — near $30 — implies more than 25% downside from current levels, underscoring the cautious outlook. A sustained stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand, coupled with clinical successes outside seasonal vaccines, would be the strongest prerequisites for becoming more bullish on Moderna's long-term prospects.
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