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More Reading from MarketBeat Media Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Authored by Leo Miller. Posted: 1/20/2026. 
Key Takeaways - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines in 2026. Shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — Moderna's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have plummeted as COVID-19's relevance has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock remains more than 90% below its all-time high—even after the recent bounce. Warren Buffett is sitting on $344 billion, the biggest cash position of his career. Meanwhile, CEOs behind America's most powerful tech companies are selling billions in shares even as Wall Street tells everyday investors to buy the AI dip. After 46 years tracking institutional money flows, one pattern stands out: money is leaving crowded AI trades and flooding into an ignored corner of the market. The reason is power. A single AI data center uses as much electricity as a small city, and the grid can't handle what's coming. Institutions are quietly loading up on companies upgrading America's power backbone. See the stocks flagged to lead the next leg of this market. With the stock in such a deep hole and the pharma company recently raising its outlook, can Moderna shares recover? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The spike in Moderna stock followed the company's announcement of better-than-expected revenue guidance and stronger cost-management metrics. For 2025, the company said it expects to generate $1.9 billion in revenue—$100 million above its previously outlined midpoint guidance. Management also forecast operating expenses roughly $200 million below prior estimates. This implies non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 of $5 billion to $5.2 billion, about a $2 billion decline from the prior year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs between $3.5 billion and $3.9 billion by 2027. Nearly all of Moderna's sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines. That compares with a peak quarter in late 2021 when the company generated $7.2 billion. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had received the complete primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine. That leaves a much smaller pool of potential vaccine recipients and makes it difficult to see sustainable growth based solely on COVID products. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026. The company plans to drive recurring COVID-19 booster sales from high-risk groups and older adults. Moderna has secured partnerships with the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia, and 2026 will be the first year it sees full-year benefits from those deals. Notably, in Q1 2026 the firm expects $200 million in sales from the U.K. government. Targeting high-risk populations and pursuing government contracts could help establish a revenue base going forward. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes its seasonal vaccine strategy, combined with cost reductions, can achieve breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine that could be approved in 2026 and begin generating meaningful revenue in 2027. Approval would be a significant catalyst, adding a second seasonal product aimed at a widespread infection — and would be important to reaching the 2028 target. However, seasonal markets alone likely won't deliver long-term growth. While vaccines could provide a revenue floor, Moderna will probably need successes in non-seasonal categories — such as oncology or rare diseases — to restore sustained investor enthusiasm. The company has several candidates in those areas with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The lead candidate is its personalized cancer medicine, intismeran. Moderna expects five‑year Phase 2 data in early 2026, with potential Phase 3 data in late 2026. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock. Uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. It is far from certain that COVID-19 vaccine sales have bottomed, and the company's long-term prospects hinge largely on approvals in clinical areas where it currently has no marketed products. The federal government has also scaled back some investments in mRNA development, winding down BARDA support, which has heightened concerns about the path to future approvals. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target — near $30 — implies more than 25% downside from current levels. A sustained stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand, plus positive non-seasonal clinical readouts and regulatory wins, would be important prerequisites before becoming more bullish on Moderna's long-term outlook.
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