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Further Reading from MarketBeat.com Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Submitted by Leo Miller. Article Posted: 1/20/2026. 
Article Highlights - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines in 2026 when shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — the company's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have declined sharply as COVID-19's relevance has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock remains down more than 90% from its all-time high, even after the recent bounce. Gold is up almost $2,000 an ounce in the past year, catching many on Wall Street by surprise. But one analyst predicted the move. Right after Trump's election, he called for gold to pass $3,200, and it happened within two days. He said it would soar past $4,100, and it did within two months. He predicted $5,000 early in 2026, and that just happened. Now he says gold is headed to $7,000 soon with $10,000 on the near horizon. But despite gold's run, there's a way to make even more, an approach that has delivered 31, 65, even 469 times higher gains than gold itself. Learn the critical details now. With the stock in such a deep hole, and the pharma company having recently lifted its outlook, is there life left in Moderna shares? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The spike in Moderna stock followed the company announcing better-than-expected revenue guidance and improved cost-management metrics. For 2025, Moderna now expects to generate $1.9 billion in revenue — $100 million above its previously outlined midpoint guidance. It also forecast operating expenses roughly $200 million below earlier estimates. As a result, non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 are expected to be between $5 billion and $5.2 billion, about a $2 billion decline from the prior year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs to be between $3.5 billion and $3.9 billion by 2027. Nearly all of Moderna's sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines — a sharp contrast with late 2021, when the company generated $7.2 billion in one quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had completed a primary COVID-19 vaccine series. That leaves a much smaller pool of potential patients for Moderna to target, making it difficult to see sustainable growth coming from COVID treatments alone. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, citing repeatable booster demand among high-risk individuals and seniors. The company also has strategic government partnerships with Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia; 2026 will be the first year Moderna sees the full-year benefit of those deals. Notably, the firm expects to generate $200 million in sales from the U.K. government in Q1 2026. Targeting high-risk populations and expanding government contracts could help establish a steadier revenue base. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna says its seasonal vaccine strategy, combined with cost reductions, could deliver breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine that could be approved in 2026 and begin contributing meaningful revenue in 2027. Approval of a second seasonal product would be an important catalyst and would help the company toward its 2028 target. However, seasonal vaccines alone are unlikely to drive long-term growth. To rekindle broader investor enthusiasm, Moderna will probably need successes in non-seasonal areas such as oncology or rare diseases. The company has several candidates in these categories with pivotal readouts expected in 2026, the most notable being its personalized cancer therapy intismeran. Moderna expects five-year Phase 2 data in early 2026, with potential Phase 3 data by late 2026. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock Overall, uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. It is not guaranteed that COVID-19 vaccine sales have hit bottom, and the company's long-term prospects hinge on gaining approvals in clinical areas where it currently has no marketed products. The Trump administration has also been critical of mRNA technology and has scaled back some government investments in the field, which has heightened concerns about future support and regulatory momentum. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target — near $30 — implies more than 25% downside from current levels, underscoring the cautious market view. A sustained stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand, plus approvals or positive readouts in non-seasonal programs, would be important prerequisites for becoming more bullish on the company's long-term prospects.
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