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This Week's Exclusive Story Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Written by Leo Miller. Date Posted: 1/20/2026. 
Key Takeaways - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines in 2026. Shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13, marking Moderna's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have plunged as COVID-19's relevance has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock is down more than 90% from its all-time high—even after the recent bounce. A growing number of investors are paying attention to developments around private space companies and potential future public listings.
In a recent briefing, one research publisher outlines how some investors are seeking early exposure to the space economy through publicly traded assets — without waiting for a formal IPO. The presentation walks through the structure, risks, and mechanics behind this approach for those who want to understand how it works. Read the full sponsor briefing here With the stock trading so far below its peak and the pharma company recently lifting its outlook, could Moderna shares have a path to recovery? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The jump in Moderna stock followed the company's release of better-than-expected revenue guidance and improved cost-management metrics. For 2025, Moderna expects to generate $1.9 billion in revenue—$100 million above the midpoint of its prior guidance. The company also forecast operating expenses roughly $200 million below earlier estimates. That would put non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 between $5.0 billion and $5.2 billion, about a $2 billion decline from the prior year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs to run between $3.5 billion and $3.9 billion by 2027. Nearly all of Moderna's sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million was from COVID vaccines. That compares with the heady days of late 2021, when the company generated $7.2 billion in a single quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had received the complete primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine. That leaves a much smaller pool of potential patients, which makes it difficult for Moderna to sustain growth based on COVID products alone. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeatable booster demand among high-risk individuals and seniors. The company has strategic agreements with the governments of Canada, the U.K., and Australia, and 2026 will be the first year it realizes the full-year benefit of those partnerships. Notably, Moderna expects $200 million in sales from the U.K. government in Q1 2026. Targeting high-risk populations and securing government contracts could establish a revenue base moving forward. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes a seasonal-vaccine strategy combined with cost reductions can achieve breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine; if approved in 2026, it could begin generating meaningful revenue in 2027. Approval of a second seasonal product would be a significant catalyst and is important to the company's 2028 goal. However, seasonal markets alone are unlikely to deliver long-term growth. To re-establish investor enthusiasm, Moderna will probably need success in non-seasonal areas—most notably oncology and rare diseases. The company has several candidates in those areas with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most important is its personalized cancer candidate intismeran: Moderna expects five-year Phase II data in early 2026, with possible Phase III data in late 2026. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock Uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. It is not guaranteed that COVID-19 vaccine sales have bottomed, and the company's long-term prospects depend heavily on approvals in therapeutic areas where it currently has no marketed products. The federal government's shifting support for mRNA initiatives—such as moves to wind down certain BARDA investments—has added to concerns about future backing and regulatory momentum. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch rather than a clear buy. The consensus price target, near $30, implies more than 25% downside from current levels. Seeing stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand and positive readouts from non-seasonal programs would be key prerequisites to becoming more bullish on the company's long-term prospects.
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