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This Month's Featured Story United Parcel Service Transitions to Growth: Accumulation BeginsWritten by Thomas Hughes. Publication Date: 1/28/2026. 
Summary - United Parcel Service has returned to growth sooner than expected, and its stock price looks to be in rebound mode.
- An ample capital return is reliable in 2026, with distributions expected to increase.
- Analysts and institutional data align with a market bottom and reversal, and trends will likely strengthen as 2026 progresses.
The long-awaited bottom in United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) stock appears to be in, and a rebound is underway. Supported by recent results, improving operational quality and a clearer growth outlook, the recovery could be substantial for long-term holders. After a period of distribution activity and downward price pressure from analysts, UPS is back in an accumulation posture that may strengthen as the year progresses. Analysts and Institutions Have Shifted to Bullish The shift is evident in analyst behavior. The analyst community currently rates the stock a consensus Hold, but began raising price targets in late 2025. Wall Street doesn't like risk. It prefers to buy little-known gold stocks ONLY after they become productive and are gushing cash.
That means if you can buy this company BEFORE Wall Street spots the obvious cash flows, you can frontrun them… Putting your money in before they pile in.
This company just poured its first ounces of gold production, from a brand new mine that just opened. Click here to get the full briefing before it's too late. Those bullish revisions continued into early 2026 and are likely to accelerate now that UPS has provided 2026 guidance. The company is forecasting $89.7 billion in net revenue, roughly 300 basis points above MarketBeat's reported consensus, effectively bringing forward a year of growth. Margins are also expected to remain strong, suggesting a leveraged earnings rebound may be at hand. Institutional activity is supportive as well: institutions own about 60% of UPS and, on balance, were buyers in Q4 2025. There were some institutional sales that coincided with the stock's low, but a late-quarter shift toward accumulation extended into January 2026 and appears to be strengthening. Alongside growth expectations, Q4 2025 results and the 2026 guide underpin a reliable capital return program for investors. Dividend Strength and Buybacks Reward Investors Trading near COVID-19-era lows, the stock currently yields more than 6% and is positioned to support continued dividend increases over the coming years. The 2026 guidance implies dividend payments slightly above 2025 levels, suggesting another low-single-digit increase may be forthcoming. Share buybacks reduced the share count by roughly 0.7% in 2025 and are expected to continue in 2026. UPS Accelerates Stock Reversal With Strong Results UPS delivered a solid Q4 despite reporting year-over-year contraction in some areas. Revenue declined 3.2%, but that shortfall was smaller than expected — about $500 million better than consensus — with strength in revenue per package and international markets offsetting weakness in domestic volume and supply chain solutions. Adjusted operating margin contracted as expected and broadly matched forecasts, leaving adjusted earnings above consensus by a similar margin. The opportunity for investors is to enter early in this potential rebound. The outlook for earnings, the potential for outperformance, and the shifting analyst posture point toward a cycle of outperformance and additional bullish revisions. In that scenario, UPS stock could move to the high end of the early 2026 target range — a gain of roughly 40% from the pre-release close — as upgrades and higher price targets attract renewed market interest. UPS Advances Following Strong 2026 Guide UPS stock ticked higher after the 2026 guide, finding support near its 30-day exponential moving average (EMA). The 30-day EMA is rising along with the 150-day EMA after a Golden Cross formed in December 2025. That technical signal aligns with improving market conditions and accumulation, and suggests a likely support zone. If these EMAs continue to provide support, a more substantial price rebound may follow.  Key catalysts for 2026 include persistent revenue growth, operational outperformance and margin recovery. UPS's investments in digitization, automation and AI are expected to gain traction and compound improvements in business quality. The decline in Amazon-related volume should stabilize as the company shifts its mix toward higher-margin consumer and business traffic. Industry-specific initiatives — notably in healthcare, with specialized time- and temperature-sensitive transportation solutions — are also expected to drive strength.
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