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Special Report Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Author: Leo Miller. Published: 1/20/2026. 
Quick Look - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines in 2026. Shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — Moderna's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have fallen dramatically as COVID-19's relevance has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock is down over 90% from its all-time high—even after the recent bounce. DOGE payouts are already moving. Every 90 days, billions flow out — whether you've claimed your share or not. Don't miss your chance. Click here for the full details. With the stock in such a deep hole and the pharma company recently lifting its outlook, is there a path for Moderna to stage a sustained recovery? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The spike in Moderna stock followed the company's updated revenue guidance and stronger-than-expected cost-management projections. Moderna now expects $1.9 billion in revenue for 2025 — $100 million above its previously outlined midpoint guidance — and forecasted operating expenses about $200 million below earlier estimates. That guidance implies non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 between $5 billion and $5.2 billion, roughly a $2 billion decrease from the prior year. On a cash basis, the company expects costs to fall to between $3.5 billion and $3.9 billion by 2027. Almost all of Moderna's sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines — a sharp contrast with late 2021, when Moderna generated $7.2 billion in one quarter. By the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had received a complete primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine. That leaves a much smaller pool of potential patients, making it difficult for Moderna to return to prior revenue levels based solely on COVID treatments. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeat boosters for high-risk individuals and seniors. The company has strategic agreements with the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia; 2026 will be the first year it realizes the full benefit of these partnerships. Notably, Moderna projects $200 million in sales from the U.K. government in Q1 2026. Targeting high-risk populations and securing government contracts could establish a firmer revenue base moving forward. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes a seasonal vaccine strategy together with cost reductions can achieve breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine that could be approved in 2026 and start generating meaningful revenue in 2027. Approval of a second seasonal product would be a major catalyst and is an important part of the company's path to its 2028 goal. However, seasonal vaccines alone likely won't provide long-term growth. To regain investor enthusiasm, Moderna will probably need successful results in non-seasonal categories, such as oncology and rare diseases, where larger, sustainable markets exist. The company has several candidates in these areas with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most important is its personalized cancer therapy, intismeran, for which five-year Phase 2 data are expected in early 2026 and Phase 3 data could follow in late 2026. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock. Uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. It's not guaranteed that COVID-19 vaccine sales have bottomed, and the company's long-term prospects hinge on approvals in clinical areas where it currently has no marketed therapies. The federal government has also reduced investments in mRNA development in certain programs, which adds another layer of uncertainty around future approvals and commercialization support. For now, Moderna is a stock to monitor. The consensus price target — near $30 — implies more than 25% downside from current levels, underscoring skepticism about the shares. Stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand, successful approvals of non-seasonal candidates, or significant new partnerships would be key triggers to become more constructive on Moderna's long-term prospects.
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