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Just For You Berkshire Bought the Dip—Now Constellation Brands Is ReboundingWritten by Leo Miller. Posted: 1/9/2026. 
At a Glance - Constellation Brands is rebounding sharply in early 2026 after a 36% loss last year, with its Q3 earnings beating expectations.
- Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake in STZ despite the stock’s downturn, signaling long-term confidence in its recovery potential.
- Strong beer segment performance, improving margins, and analyst price targets point to upside, even as broader alcohol demand remains uncertain.
After a difficult 2025, shares of beer giant Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) are starting 2026 on a brighter note. Despite Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK.B) investment, Constellation delivered a total return of -36% last year. Before Warren Buffett's retirement, Berkshire initiated a position in Constellation during Q4 2024, and as of September 2025 held 13.4 million shares—worth roughly $1.8 billion at the time. General weakness across the beer market and among Constellation's customer base contributed to the stock's decline. Constellation lowered its full-year fiscal 2026 (FY2026) guidance in September 2025 because of the challenging environment. Note that the company's fiscal year is several quarters ahead of the calendar year. As of the Jan. 8 close, Constellation shares were up more than 7% in 2026. The stock has rebounded roughly 16% from a 2025 low near $128 in November. The firm's latest earnings report also pushed the shares up 5.3%. Below is a closer look at Constellation's most recent results and what they mean for the stock. Constellation Delivers Impressive Bottom Line Beat In Q3 FY2026, Constellation reported net revenue of $2.22 billion, a 10% decline but about $52 million above analysts' estimates. The consumer staples company reported comparable earnings per share of $3.06, down roughly 6% year over year but well ahead of consensus expectations of $2.63 (which implied a 19% decline). Constellation's beer segment—about 90% of revenue—saw sales decline 1%. That drop was smaller than the broader beer industry's, allowing Constellation to gain market share. Amid a weak backdrop, Constellation's beer business has consistently outperformed: in Q1 and Q2 FY2026 the company led the beer category in dollar share gains, and the same was true in FY2025 (company filings). Even though sales slipped, the beer segment's operating margin rose by 10 basis points, signaling effective cost management. Dragging on overall growth was the Wine and Spirits segment, where sales fell 51%—primarily due to the divestiture of SVEDKA vodka and part of the wine portfolio. Excluding those divestitures, sales in the segment were down about 7%. Applying the same exclusions companywide, sales declined roughly 2% instead of the reported 10%, underscoring a stronger underlying performance. Coming Off Multi-Year Lows, STZ Could Have Significant Room to Run Trading around $148, Constellation has only partially recovered from its 2025 low near $128. That low was not just a one-year trough; it was the stock's lowest level since April 2020, shortly after the COVID-19 market crash in March of that year. In other words, Constellation is rebounding from a historic drawdown rather than merely a short-term dip, which leaves meaningful upside potential if the recovery continues. Berkshire Buys and Price Targets Support Constellation's Potential Berkshire purchased more than 6 million Constellation shares in Q1 2025, a quarter in which the lowest closing price was $158. That suggests the shares Berkshire bought that quarter were purchased at prices roughly 7% above Constellation's current level. Since then, Berkshire has increased its stake, signaling continued conviction even as the stock fell. That pattern suggests Berkshire still sees substantial appreciation potential. Wall Street analysts are similarly constructive. The MarketBeat consensus price target of about $182 implies roughly 23% upside from current levels. That said, the beer industry faces real questions. A recent Gallup survey found just 54% of Americans reported drinking alcohol—the lowest recorded. However, similar lows have occurred before and were followed by recoveries, suggesting recent declines may be cyclical rather than structural. A rebound in alcohol consumption would be a meaningful tailwind for Constellation. Given the company's track record of beer segment share gains and its current valuation, Constellation's outlook appears tilted to the upside.
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