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Today's Featured Content Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Authored by Leo Miller. Article Posted: 1/20/2026. 
Key Takeaways - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines in 2026 when shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — the company's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have been severely hit as COVID-19's relevance has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock remains down more than 90% from its all-time high, even after the recent bounce. With the stock in such a deep hole and the pharma company recently raising its outlook, is there a path for Moderna shares to recover? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The stock spike followed Moderna's announcement of better-than-expected revenue guidance and tighter cost forecasts. For 2025, the company said it expects to generate $1.9 billion in revenue — $100 million above its previously outlined midpoint. Moderna also forecasted operating expenses about $200 million below prior estimates. That would put the firm's non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 between $5 billion and $5.2 billion, roughly a $2 billion decline from the prior year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs of $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion by 2027. Nearly all of Moderna's current sales come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million was from COVID vaccines — a sharp contrast with late 2021, when the company generated $7.2 billion in one quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had received the complete primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine, leaving a much smaller pool of potential patients. That makes it difficult to rely on COVID treatments alone for sustainable growth. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeatable booster demand among high-risk individuals and seniors. The company also has strategic government partnerships — including Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia — and 2026 will be the first year Moderna sees the full-year benefit of those deals. Notably, the firm expects about $200 million in Q1 2026 sales from the U.K. government. Targeting high-risk populations and securing government contracts could help establish a steadier revenue base. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes a seasonal vaccine strategy combined with cost cuts can achieve breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine that could be approved in 2026 and start contributing meaningful revenue in 2027. Adding a second seasonal product would be a major catalyst and is important to the company's 2028 target. However, seasonal vaccines alone are unlikely to drive long-term growth. To re-energize investors, Moderna will probably need wins in non-seasonal areas such as oncology or rare diseases. Several candidates in those pipelines have pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The leading program is its personalized cancer vaccine, intismeran, for which Moderna expects five-year Phase II data in early 2026 and potential Phase III results later in the year. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock. Uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. It's not guaranteed that COVID-19 vaccine sales have hit bottom, and the company's long-term prospects hinge on approvals in therapeutic areas where it currently has no marketed drugs. The U.S. government has also scaled back some investments in mRNA development, which has added to concerns about the regulatory and funding backdrop for the technology Moderna specializes in (see HHS announcement). For now, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target sits near $30, implying more than 25% downside from current levels. A sustained stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand or meaningful clinical successes in non-seasonal indications would be important prerequisites for a more bullish long-term view.
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